Super Bowl LIII is almost upon us and with it, one last chance to play daily fantasy football until next season. It’s a bittersweet moment for daily fantasy football fans everywhere but it’s a week that DraftKings and FanDuel are still taking full advantage of, offering players some great contests and offers this weekend.
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Super Bowl LIII DFS picks vary by contest type
With a variety of contests types available this weekend, including some impressive free promotions, there is enough available to keep Sunday interesting for most fans of DFS — even if the game turns out not to be.
Of course, with a single one-game slate, the strategy on how to approach these games is different than every other week of the NFL season, which is something that I went over in my tips post earlier in the week. Now we put those tips into practice with my picks for a variety of contest types.
|Colin's Picks For Super Bowl Weekend|
|Tournaments||50/50s||50/50s (Second Half)|
|MVP||Chris Hogan (DK-$5,700)||Tom Brady (FD-$10,500)||Jared Goff (FD-$15,500)|
|FLEX||Julian Edelman (DK-$10,800)||Jared Goff (FD-$7,300)||Todd Gurley (FD-$14,000)|
|FLEX||James White (DK-$7,200)||Sony Michel (FD-$14,500)||Sony Michel (FD-$14,500)|
|FLEX||Sony Michel (DK-$6,800)||Greg Zuerlin (FD-$10,000)||Brandin Cooks (FD-$11,500)|
|FLEX||Brandin Cooks (DK-$8,200)||Dwayne Allen (FD-$4,000)||Dwayne Allen (FD-$4,000)|
|FLEX||Tom Brady (DK-$10,600)|
MVP – Chris Hogan (DK-$5,700)
Hogan is the wildcard in this game as he has gotten a lot more volume than both Gronk and Dorsett lately. Combine this with the fact that the Rams corners, outside of Talib, have been suspect this season.
If Hogan is the recipient of one of those occasional broken-coverage deep balls that happens every few weeks with the Pats, Hogan would be the one to take it to the house. If you want to win a tournament, you’ll need a dark horse in your MVP slot to distance you from the pack. In a single-entry tournament, a differentiated lineup is that much more critical.
Flex – Julian Edelman (DK-$10,800)
Edelman is Tom Brady’s safety net. His route-running is crisp and Edelman is schemed open all the time, no matter who is guarding him. We stated in our tips post that there’s a reason he is the highest-priced player this week — volume. Being the most dependable target on a team with the greatest coach and quarterback has its advantages.
Flex – James White (DK-$7,200)
James White is the secret weapon. They used him early and often against the Chargers and then used him sparingly for the remainder of the playoffs. With how badly Alvin Kamara torched the Rams through the air in the NFC title game, White should accumulate some serious PPR points.
Flex – Sony Michel (DK-$6,800)
Michel is priced low on DraftKings because, well, he doesn’t ever seem to get receptions. However, Sony has rushed 26.5 times per game this postseason for 121 yards per game and has five touchdowns. Don’t overthink it. He’s going to get the volume.
Flex – Brandin Cooks (DK-$8,200)
Brandin Cooks isn’t the deadliest weapon the Patriots will face this Sunday, and you can guarantee the Pats know a thing or two about how to defend Cooks. I think the main concern will be Todd Gurley and getting pressure on the young Jared Goff. Woods should draw the top Patriots corner, so Cooks will have some shots to make a big impact on Sunday.
Flex – Tom Brady (DK-$10,600)
Brady and Goff have similar Vegas lines this week, but Brady will be saving the Super Bowl for his finest performance. Think about it: He did the same thing last year (500+ yards in last season’s Super Bowl) and he’s doing it again this season by sandbagging and resting during the season. It’s the only way his old body — born during the Jimmy Carter’s administration — can perform when he needs it most.
MVP – Tom Brady (FD-$10,500)
Brady is your guy in the MVP slot, statistically. He has the best odds to produce in that position, which is what you need in a 50/50. If it’s FanDuel, it’s definitely Brady, because the half-point PPR factor, combined with the fact the MVP’s price isn’t multiplied by 1.5. Brady has the best value in the MVP slot for FanDuel and it’s not even close.
Flex – Jared Goff (FD-$7,300)
Goff has nearly the same projections as Brady and again, quarterbacks are among the lowest variance roster choices you can make. You’re simply trying to beat half the field. Play it safe and take the easy points.
Flex – Sony Michel (FD-$14,500)
We’ll repeat what we said before: Michel is priced low on DraftKings because, well, he doesn’t ever seem to get receptions. However, Sony has rushed 26.5 times per game this postseason for 121 yards per game and has five touchdowns. Don’t overthink it. He’s going to get the volume.
Flex – Greg Zuerlin (FD-$10,000)
It’s so boring, I know. Zuerlin is averaging nearly 12 points per game this season. In terms of variance, he is a low-variance play, which fits the 50/50 success mold well. I won’t tell anyone you started a kicker in the flex if you don’t tell anyone I suggested it. How about that?
Flex – Dwayne Allen (FD-$4,000)
Roster fill, plain and simple.
50/50 (Second-Half Only)
MVP – Jared Goff (FD-$15,500)
The Patriots have given up 59 points in in the second half over the last two games. By that alone, and maybe combined with the fact the Rams have trailed at the end of the first quarter in every postseason game this year, it’s fair to think the Rams will need to engineer some sort of second-half comeback. Since Brady and Goff are a coin-flip in Vegas’ eyes, I’ll go with the recent trends.
Flex – Todd Gurley (FD-$14,000)
Gurley will be a key piece if the Rams are down in the second half. I’ll take this dynamic bruiser over other options to wear down a defense late in a game.
Flex – Sony Michel (FD-$14,500)
Michel is priced high and he will be worth it, especially if the Pats are trying to run some clock and put the game out of reach.
Flex – Brandin Cooks (FD-$11,500)
I simply like Cooks’ potential cornerback matchup better than Woods. In a second-half comeback scenario, I’ll go with Cooks to make a big play.
Flex – Dwayne Allen (FD-$4,000)
Roster filler and nothing more. Maybe Gronk gets banged up and Allen fills in.
Collin is a former Army Intelligence and Logistics officer who got a little too into Football analysis. Since leaving the Army, he’s practically the Jack Ryan of football analysts. But he spends most of his days with his wife and two daughters, so he is clearly a better father than Jack Ryan.
Follow Collin on Twitter @CollinHulbert