Once the daily fantasy football season gets deep into the NFL Playoffs, we need an entirely different strategy as we put together our lineups.
In this post, we focus on a few tips and considerations you should example when putting lineups together for including during Conference Championship Weekend.
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Tip #1 – Start with the obvious
It’s not often, especially in the NFL, that a game really goes to plan. However, you can make educated guesses as to how things may transpire, based on player matchups and offensive schemes versus defensive schemes. It didn’t take a genius to figure out the Chargers were going to struggle rushing against the Patriots. From the matchup alone, Melvin Gordon was a bad idea.
More often than not, these observations will go a long way in determining whether or not you’ll be successful from week to week in DFS. Start with the obvious and you can narrow your list right off the bat. From there, that’s when you’ll want to do some deeper research.
Tip #2 – Contest type matters
Contests are limited at this point in the season. Identify the type you want to play before choosing your lineup. If you choose a 50/50, remember the goal is to be better than half the field. Pick the most conservative, sure-thing roster you can get and hold on tight.
Tournaments, in limited fields, are best suited for those of you who want to make bold picks. You spend the big money on the studs you believe will produce, and you carefully spend the remainder of your budget on guys you think will catch the 58-yard bomb after a breakdown in coverage. It also helps if you scream “Leroy Jenkins” when you do, from what I am told.
Tip #3 – Consider your opponent
You have four choices at quarterback during Conference Championship Week and often limited choices at tight end. Understand your opponents will be choosing the same guys and decide if the value drop is enough to sway you towards a cheaper option. If you think the difference between Mahomes and Brady is more significant than the difference between Thomas and Hill, go with Mahomes and Hill.
There’s a trick I use to help me decide. For example, if you are deciding between a cheap running back and an expensive tight end, and vice-versa, think about it like this, “Is the production I get from this great running back and bad tight end, on average, greater than the production from the safe, good tight end and lower volume running back?” Look at the matchups for all four players in that week and if the duo with the higher average has the better matchups, go with them. If it’s a split, go with your gut.
Tip #4 – Volume is key in contest type
As difficult as it may be to choose the “right” player each week, there are some stats that carry a lot more weight than others. Volume really is half the battle. High volume players are, by nature, less volatile in scoring. If a player gets 11 targets per week and averages the same as a player getting four targets a week, the higher volume guy is the one you want in a 50/50 matchup because less variance equals more predictability and less likely the chances of a bust.
To cash in tournaments, typically, you’ll need a lot of luck from a low-volume, high-variance player.