With daily fantasy sports booming and scores of less skilled players joining the games, sharper players are cleaning up. To help you weed through some of the noise and research necessary to be successful in the games, Daily Fantasy Sports Codes has teamed up with a couple top prediction services to aid in your quest for DFS dominance during the 2015 NFL season.
In this week’s edition, we’ll take a look at daily fantasy football picks for Week 1 provided by Jeff aka 00oreo00 from FantasyCruncher and Nate Weitzer from TheScout.com.
The picks are provided as a service to DFSC readers to use as a guide of selections from top experts to use for your lineups for the start of the NFL season. Since these picks are considered value plays — and not necessarily “boom or bust” type of players, meaning they are better suited for smaller entry contests versus larger guaranteed prize pool contests.
FantasyCruncher DraftKings Week 1 NFL Picks (Full Lineup)
In his picks from Week 1, Jeff from FantasyCruncher.com looks to take advantage of some early season salary value plays as the result of preseason injuries. These picks, which were created from FantasyCruncher’s premium Week 1 Optimizer, can be used as a full lineup with $400 to spare in a $50,000 salary cap lineup in heads-up or smaller entry fields.
If you like these picks, be sure to check out FantasyCruncher premium service, where members are given full access to the site’s software the projections. Week 1 content is available for free.
You can follow Jeff on Twitter at 00oreo00.
== FantasyCruncher Lineup ==
QB Tyrod Taylor ($5,000)
RB Eddie Lacy ($7,500)
RB Jeremy Hill ($7,100)
WR Jordan Matthews ($7,200)
WR Davante Adams ($4,400)
WR Eddie Royal ($3,900)
TE Greg Olsen ($5,300)
FLEX Justin Forsett ($6,200)
DST Miami ($3,000)
QB – Tyrod Taylor ($5,000 at DraftKings) – Drafting Taylor on your lineups this week is a great value play with a decent matchup against Indianapolis in Week 1.
RB – Eddie Lacy ($7,500) – Green Bay’s offense is fantasy gold and with Jordy Nelson out for the season, FantasyCruncher expects a expanded role for Lacy in this matchup in Chicago.
RB – Jeremy Hill ($7,100) – Hill is a top ranked running back that has an excellent matchup against Oakland’s defense.
WR – Jordan Matthews ($7,200) – Now a #1 WR, $7,200 is a fair price in a game where a lot of points are expected to be scored (with a 55 over/under, the Philadephia/Atlanta matchup is predicted to be the highest scoring game of the week).
WR – Eddie Royal ($3,900) – With an improved hip, Royal is the only truly healthy wide receiver left for the Bears this week. FantasyCruncher also expects the Bears to be playing from behind for much of the game, increasing the likelihood for additional passing opportunities from QB Jay Cutler.
WR – Davante Adams ($4,400) – No Jordy Nelson means that Adams will be Aaron Rodger’s top choice for long balls. Plus he’s super cheap at this price.
TE – Greg Olsen ($5,300) – Wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin is out for the season so Olsen is now the number one scoring option on the Panthers. Olsen and company are also playing against the poor defense of the Jaguars.
FLEX – Justin Forsett ($6,200) – This week Forsett is simply a solid running back at a great price. Forsett had a lot of big weeks last season and is expected to continue being an underrated fantasy contributor during the 2015 campaign.
Team Defense – Miami ($3,000) – It’s not as if Miami’s defense is sharp (they ranked 20th in points allowed last year) is just that Kirk Cousins-led Washington Redskins just plain sucks.
Scout.com DraftKings Week 1 NFL Picks (Full Lineup)
Nate Weitzer from Scout.com is a sports journalist that also works for ESPNBoston. As an avid DFS player, Weitzer has won several thousand dollars on several different DFS sites, but his home base is DraftKings, where he plays heavy volume every NBA and NFL season.
You can follow Nate Weitzer on Twitter at @nweitzer7.
In Week 1, Weitzer’s lineup focuses around the Tony Romo/Dez Bryant value-focused combo, while independently sharing three of FantasyCruncher’s value picks. Weitzer’s selections have been optimized for smaller entry contests and use all but $100 of a $50,000 salary cap.
== Scout.com Lineup ==
QB Tony Romo ($7,300)
RB Eddie Lacy ($7,500)
RB Lamar Miller ($5,500)
WR Dez Bryant ($8,700)
WR Davante Adams ($4,400)
WR Kendall Wright ($5,100)
TE Martellus Bennett ($4,300)
FLEX Chris Ivory ($4,100)
DST Dolphins ($3,000)
QB Tony Romo ($7,300) – The Cowboys have a number of lackluster options at tailback with DeMarco Murray in Philadelphia. You can speculate on whether Darren McFadden or Joseph Randle gets more carries, but there’s no doubt that Romo will be the one throwing the ball, and he should be throwing more often than he did last season.
The Giants had a mediocre pass defense last year and gave up the 4th most total YPG (375.8) in the NFL. Romo was very steady over two meetings with the Cowboys’ divisional rivals, as he averaged 277 passing YPG, threw 7 TDs to 1 INT, and produced 48.46 DK points during that span. He’ll play at home in a primetime game and seems like a great bet to produce around 20 DraftKings points again.
RB – Eddie Lacy ($7,500) – Lacy was also in the FantasyCruncher lineup. Weitzer notes that as one of the surest bets for volume last season that he is going to be leaned on heavily with the Packers top receiving options out for the year (Jordy Nelson) and at less than full strength (Randall Cobb, sprained shoulder).
Lacy was solid as a runner last year, piling up 1,139 yards at a 4.6 YPC clip, but really improved his skills as a receiver, which makes him a great option on sites such as DraftKings that award a full point per reception. Lacy’s a good bet for 20+ touches against a Bears defense that allowed the 3rd most YPG (377.1) and most PPG (26.9) in the NFL last season.
RB – Lamar Miller ($5,500) – Miller is overlooked after a fantastic 2014-15 campaign, and under priced on DFS sites as we open the 2015-16 season. The Dolphins young RB finished last season on a tear (328 YFS and 52.8 DK points) despite facing some tough run defenses in his last few games.
He notably received less than 20 carries in each of his appearances last year, but is unquestionably the leader of the backfield on a Dolphins team that should improve greatly this season. Miller is also in a contract year, which will add to his motivation.
WR – Dez Bryant ($8,700) – Pairing a WR with a QB on the same team is usually a strategy for GPP contests, but I think it’s safe enough to assume that a high percentage of Tony Romo’s throws will go towards Dez in Week 1. The physical freak torched the Giants for 16 catches, 237 receiving yards, 2 TDs, and a combined 54.7 DK points over 2 meetings last year, and remains one of the best red zone weapons in the NFL.
WR – Davante Adams ($4,400) – A wideout pick shared by FantasyCruncher, Weitzer thinks Adams is the most talented receiver available for Aaron Rodgers who is completely healthy. The fact that he basically got no work over the Packers final two preseason games indicates that the coaching staff realizes they need the third-year wideout to play a huge role early on. He’ll face a porous secondary, and has the best QB in the NFL throwing to him, so he’s very much under priced in Week 1.
WR – Kendall Wright ($5,100) – Marcus Mariota looked pretty darn good over his last couple appearances this preseason, and he almost always had his eyes on Wright. The Titans shifty receiver caught 6 balls for 84 yards in limited snaps this preseason, and should be able to find plenty of holes in Tampa Bay’s Cover 2 base defense.
TE – Martellus Bennett ($4,300) – If the Bears defense struggles as much as it did last year against Aaron Rodgers, their offense will be throwing all afternoon, which means Bennett should see tons of targets. Like Green Bay, the Bears top two receivers are somewhat hobbled, as Alshon Jeffery (calf) and Eddie Royal (hip) may be at less than 100 percent for Week 1. Bennett is fully healthy, playing for a new contract, and already demonstrated the ability to exploit Green Bay’s secondary when he posted a 9-134-0 line to produce 25.4 DK points against the Packers in Week 4 last year.
FLEX – Chris Ivory ($4,100) – Ivory is very cheap on DraftKings because he was rarely utilized in the passing game last year, but that could change under new Jets head coach Todd Bowles. The Jets should be much more capable offensively this season, and their running game could get off to a great start in a match up against a Browns team that gave up the most RuYPG (141.6) in the NFL last season.
Team Defense – Miami ($3,000) – Another pick shared by FantasyCruncher. Weitzer notes that the Dolphins allowed the 8th fewest passing YPG (222.3) in the NFL last year, but struggled to stop the run. So, they added the best DT in football in Ndamokung Suh to shore up that deficiency. In Week 1, they will take on Kirk Cousins, who turned the ball over 11 teams during his last 5 starts last year, and is 1-7 as a starter.