Welcome to the first installment of MLB DFS articles for the 2019 season.
Before we begin, I’d like to give you a bit of insight as to my own connection with the sport. From a very young age, I was devoted to baseball, with a passion unrivaled to anyone else I knew (around my age). I played for teams qualifying for multiple CABA and AABC World Series’ and played alongside multiple future MLB players. Upon reaching High School, I was involved in a car wreck and suffered a series of injuries which ultimately kept me from playing the sport at its highest level. Though I was dealt a different hand in life at that time, my passion for the sport never left me. I carried on in the form of fantasy baseball and continued to follow the sport. Though my baseball knowledge may not directly correlate with DFS, I feel it gives me advantages in certain areas of daily fantasy baseball. and I hope I can share my recommendations with the same confidence.
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My target game: 50/50s on DraftKings
As far as an approach to the DFS strategy, I will be giving you most of the formats via 50/50 style games.
The MLB season is in full swing. It’s time to step up to the plate
Scoring in MLB DFS is important to consider when making your picks. Our Draftkings MLB scoring article lays out the specifics on how points are recorded for MLB at DraftKings. This is a useful tool in determining which players should give you the best value on a given day.
Tuesday’s slate is a generous one if you want value at Pitcher. The game mode we’ve chosen this week as a basis for the article is the “Classic” game type. Under this format, we will choose two pitchers, a catcher, first baseman, second baseman, shortstop, third baseman, and three outfielders. Though pitchers can be more predictable on a game to game basis, the value, though volatile, sits firmly with the batters. Homeruns, at 10 points per, can be the category that wins you the contest.
This week, I’ve isolated a few strong pitching matchups that should give us great value. Enjoy!
Charlie Morton (DK-$10,600)
Morton has a favorable opposing matchup in this one as he faces Asher Wojciechowsk30-year-oldw), a 30-year-old journeyman, who was just acquired from Cleveland via trade. This season, Morton has been incredible. Morton isn’t coming off a great outing in his last game against the Twins, but he’s gone at least six innings in each of his last seven outings and had at least seven Ks in five of his last seven. He’s probably got the highest floor of all Tuesday’s starters. Set him in your lineup with confidence.
Joe Musgrove (DK-$5,900)
In his past two outings, Musgrove has averaged 26.5 points and posted a 13:0 K to BB ratio. In order to get the most value from the positional players this week, we have to roll the dice on a pitcher. Musgrove lowered his WHIP to 1.25 and ERA to 4.27. Cross your fingers he keeps it up on Tuesday.
Mitch Garver (DK-$4,900)
Garver hasn’t exactly been tearing the cover off the ball lately. He’s just 4 for his last 27 at the plate, in the midst of a heel injury, but he did have a three-hit game against the Rays just a week ago. With options limited at the position this week, Garver will be facing Daniel Mengden, whom he has no history with. Mengden carries a 1.48 WHIP into the matchup and could be in for a long night against one of the ALs premier hitting teams. Hopefully, this will lead to more runners in scoring position for Garver to take advantage of.
Yandy Diaz (DK-$4,400)
Diaz is facing Asher Wojciechowski in his first start for the Orioles. Diaz is five for eight in his last two games. If Wojciechowski can overcome the nerves in his first start, it may not be the fruitful night Diaz owners will be hoping for. Opposite Charlie Morton, the pressure will be on the Orioles starter. I’m banking on mistakes and Diaz capitalizing on them.
Kike Hernandez (DK-$3,900)
Hernandez isn’t having a great season, by the numbers. The positive aspect of his game is the occasional power output. Hernandez has 13 bombs this year, a noble point of production for the position. Though the 215 average isn’t good, Hernandez is coming off a two-hit game. Let’s hope he can keep it rolling Tuesday.
Yoan Moncada (DK-$4,400)
Moncada is batting .304 with 14 homeruns this season. Matthew Boyd has struggled in two of his past three outings, surrendering a total of seven homeruns. Though Boyd has posted a strong 1.09 WHIP this season, I like Moncada’s ceiling in this matchup. Something has to give between these two and I feel good about the potential here for a pretty decent matchup.
Francisco Lindor (DK-$4,600)
Lindor has faced Jakob Junis three times this season and has gone three for three against him. Though Lindor is just 2 for his last 13, it’s a matchup that’s simply too juicy to ignore. Junis gave up nine hits in his last outing against the Indians. It’s a promising matchup for Lindor and the tribe.
Kevin Kiermaier (DK-$3,900)
Kiermaier has speed and a little pop in his bat (14 SBs and 9 HRs). We’re all-aboard the Tampa train on Tuesday against Wojciechowski. If Kiermaier can get on base, his floor will remain appealing in this game. Though he has only one steal in the past two weeks, Kiermaier is coming off a multi-hit game. Cheers to Kevin continuing with the hot bat.
Jake Bauers (DK-$3,300)
We like Bauers here for the matchup and that’s really all. Bauers is two for five with a homerun and a walk in six plate appearances against Junis in 2019. Ignore the other numbers on Bauers because he seems to be seeing Junis a lot better than the other arms he’s seen in 2019. He’s a cheap play and the sacrifice for starting Morton in our pitching slot.
Nicholas Castellanos (DK-$4,100)
Castellanos is batting .360 over his past 14 games and has hits in all but one of those games. He’s been one of the steadiest hitters in baseball over the past three weeks and there’s nothing about this matchup against Lopez and the White Sox that should cause any reason for panic. Castellanos is batting 370 against Lopez in 27 career plate appearances. He’s another good value play who doesn’t stand much of a threat to steal or go yard, but his floor should be high on Tuesday.
Collin is a former Army Intelligence and Logistics officer who will watch any sport and gamble with anyone willing. This is his second year writing for dailyfantasysports.codes. You can find him on Twitter at @CollinHulbert