We’ve yet to be disappointed by our pitchers this season, as Flaherty (26) and Yamamoto (15) accounted for nearly half our points last Tuesday. Three donuts from position players were ultimately our undoing, as the position players couldn’t muster nearly enough offense to warrant a win in most formats. Alas, it’s a new week and a good opportunity to bounce back, with a slate of pitcher-friendly matchups. There’s a lot of value to be had in the arms department this Tuesday.
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It’s decision time for playoff-hopeful front offices
It’s creeping closer to the time of the season where teams evaluate their playoff odds and decide whether they’re going to make a push and add that player or two to give them the push they need to get to the finish line. Rumors are already circulating that Madison Bumgarner may be on the table in trade discussions. A number of players in the league will be popping up on the trade radar soon.
From a DFS standpoint, it isn’t the most important thing for us to monitor. What we should consider going forward is how that feeling amongst the players will affect their performance amidst the rumors. Put yourself in the players’ shoes for a minute. If you’re a World Series MVP and you’ve been brought up by an organization and feel a connection with that team the way Bumgarner had been, it’s a punch to the gut. It has to have some impact on that player and for that reason, I switched off Bumgarner this week and turned to Yonny Chirinos instead.
This week, we’re looking to get a high ceiling on some batters and scoop up a couple of pitchers playing well, priced lower than they should be, based on the abundance of arms available this Tuesday. Given the value at pitching this week, this lineup is risky, but I’m carefully picking a couple of pitchers who will allow us to get value elsewhere.
Yonny Chirinos (DK-$8,400)
The matchup versus Boston is hard to look at and feel confident about, seeing as how their lineup is filled with hitters who have had successful stretches in their careers. However, given the fact Boston hitters are just 2 for 26 against Chirinos, it’s an appealing matchup at home this Tuesday. We’ve been good on picking pitchers thus far in 2019, but it just takes one mediocre outing and one bad outing to sink your roster for the week. Boston hasn’t been especially potent this season, so the window to exploit them might be shrinking.
Chris Archer (DK-$7,500)
Archer is another value arm who has put up at least 13 points in eight of his last nine outings. Better yet, the Cardinals are hitting just .179 against him this season. If you opt to go elsewhere for your top arm, don’t pass on Archer in the #2 spot in your roster. He has a high floor and has been pitching above his price as of late. Look for Archer to continue his strong push into Tuesday’s matchup at home against St. Louis.
Jorge Alfaro (DK-$3,800)
Alfaro has been a steady player from the plate this season, hitting .277 with 10 HRs and averaging six fantasy points per contest. This week, as we seek to stack our lineup in a few positions, Alfaro is a flier in a great matchup against a bullpen arm making a spot start in Dylan Covey (5.83 ERA and 1.58 WHIP). Alfaro has not flashed power as of late, hitting just four extra-base hits and zero home runs in July. Given his lack of potency at the plate, Alfaro has a low ceiling, but the matchup is too juicy to ignore for the price. Hopefully, Alfaro can capitalize and demonstrate the power he showed earlier in the season.
Sam Travis (DK-$2,800)
With both first basemen likely out for Tuesday’s game, the Red Sox will likely turn to Sam Travis to make a rare start off the bench. Travis is purely a sacrificial lamb in this lineup. At the price of $2,800, it’s nearly impossible to be able to find a player in the pool who will start in a matchup for such a low price. As a result, we will get incredible value for the opportunity in the game. At the very least, a poor showing from Travis means that Chirinos couldn’t have THAT bad of a game, right?
Jonathan Villar (DK-$4,200)
Homering in his last game, Villar is fresh off a power drought. He’s got seven games in July with multiple hits and the matchup isn’t a horrible one Tuesday night as he faces Merrill Kelly of Arizona. Villar has good speed (17 steals) and okay pop (11 HRs) for his position, but he has only one stolen base in the month of July, so I’m not thrilled about the recent lack of aggressiveness on the basepaths as of late.
Alex Bregman (DK-$5,000)
Bregman is the first of three $5,000 position players this week in the lineup. He’ll be facing off against Mike Fiers of the Detroit Tigers on Tuesday. The last time an Astros player faced Fiers was 2018 and Bregman had the best stat line against him, going two for three with a home run. Bregman has two bombs in his past four games and should get some decent RBI opportunities as the Astros went 9 for 28 in their last matchup against the Detroit right-hander.
Fernando Tatis Jr (DK-$5,400)
Tatis Jr is the big play this week. Tatis is off to a legendary start for someone his age (.324 with 16 HRs and 14 SBs). He’s the highest-priced shortstop in DFS Tuesday for good reason. Jason Vargas has not been good in 2019. He’s surrendered at least one home run in each of his past six outings (four in his previous two). The Padres are among the best at hitting home runs this season and Tatis has flashed ability all over the offensive spectrum this season. It’s a recipe for success and there’s no hotter cook in town right now than the Padres’ Fernando Tatis Jr.
Aaron Judge (DK-$5,300)
The Yankees are 9 for 23 against Kyle Gibson this season and Aaron Judge wasn’t in the lineup. In his only three at-bats against Gibson in his career, Judge has drawn two walks. We know the power is there and the opportunities for RBIs should be there. The question is, will Judge continue his steady play of late? He’s hit safely in 9 of his last 13 games ( 4 HRs). Though it seems like Judge’s ceiling and reputation might be boosting his price, there will be plenty of chunk point opportunity in this one for the big man.
Nick Castellanos (DK-$4,000)
Nick Castellanos is our redemption pick of the week. The last time we slotted him in the lineup, a rain delay pushed his start a day later and Castellanos put up 29 fantasy points. The sneaky stat for Nick this season has been his routine doubles. 34 of Castellanos’ 105 hits have been doubles and 6 of his past 15 games have been multi-hit games. Castellanos doesn’t have the best matchup, facing Aaron Nola (3.77 ERA, but only seven earned runs in his last six games). Though Nola has been strong, he did surrender three bombs in his last outing, so there’s optimism going into this matchup.
Cavan Biggio (DK-$3,600)
Biggio has not been hot as of late. However, he is one of the few starting outfielders available at that price and I’d rather spend two roster spots on Aaron Judge and Biggio than try to play it safe with two decent outfielders. Following last week’s string of donuts from our position players (3), we are shooting for a higher ceiling roster this Tuesday and chasing points in chunks.
Collin is a former Army Intelligence and Logistics officer who will watch any sport and gamble with anyone willing. This is his second year writing for dailyfantasysports.codes.