Week 17 was truly an amazing way to end the season. We cashed both lineups, with the second lineup breaking the cash line on a Hunter Renfrow touchdown with under 10 seconds left to go in the game. That single three-yard catch put Renfrow over 100 yards and earned us 9.3 points, allowing us to jump from sixth place into second place (top 5 cash).
Our first lineup absolutely killed it, leaving us with a nice, no-doubt cash to begin the day after monster performances from Michael Gallup (32.8), Damien Williams (34.4), AJ Brown (25.4), and DeAndre Washington (21.2).
DraftKings Lineup Scores for our 2019 season
Week 1: 168
Week 2: 146
Week 3: 185 & 158
Week 4: 142 & 127
Week 5: 182 & 162
Week 6: 160 & 110
Week 7: 146 & 85
Week 8: 162 & 136
Week 9: 201 & 172
Week 10: 176 & 134
Week 11: 160 & 137
Week 12: 161 & 127
Week 13: 165 & 124
Week 14: 102 & 99
Week 15: 170 & 143
Week 16: 182 & 161
Week 17: 179 & 153
Yearly average: 150.47
Avg 50/50 cash in DraftKings: 134.48
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Wildcard Week preview
This week, we’re stacking the Saints and the Bills. I love the prospect of stacking two groups of players who are all playing good matchups, in a dome. It’s a reassuring feeling to have going into a limited slate.
As it is set every week, the prices on DraftKings are listed next to every player in parentheses.
Drew Brees (DK-$6,600)
Drew Brees and the Saints are tied for the best record in the NFC, but they’re playing during Wildcard weekend. If you think they aren’t mad about this, you should probably re-think things. Since their home loss to the 49ers, the Saints have been laying it on their opponents.
The Vikings should be able to put up some points to incentivize Brees to continue to throw, but Sean Payton doesn’t seem to ever ease up anyways, so it should be a big game for Brees and his healthy and motivated team. Brees’ line this week is 310 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Josh Allen (DK-$6,500)
Allen has a glorious matchup, indoors at that. He’s been a solid road quarterback this season, so if you’re worried about pressure on the road, think back to a few weeks ago when the Steelers fans were going nuts at home and Allen marched the Bills 80 yards down the field and stole the win in prime time.
Allen isn’t an amazing quarterback by conventional standards, but he has a high floor due to his rushing ability, and he’s capable of making the occasional big play. Allen has a GPI this week of 17.55 and his EO is 22.
Alvin Kamara (DK-$7,400)
Kamara, over the past few weeks, has been the player we hoped he was going to be all season long. Unfortunately, injuries had sapped him of his typical elusiveness. We’ve seen a healthier Alvin over the past two weeks, and he’s rewarded us with four touchdowns in that span.
Though the volume of touches were down last week in a blowout game, Kamara’s value (when healthy) has become abundantly clear. Kamara’s GPI this week is 19.98. His EO this week is 21, so he should be a good value play again this week, even with a shortened field.
James White (DK-$5,700)
White has done virtually nothing on the ground as of late. Fortunately for him on DraftKings, receptions matter and there’s maybe one other running back who has as much receiving upside as White has each week. I like White this week for the same reason I like Michel and Burkhead — all three of them will get used.
With it becoming painfully more obvious for the Patriots as each game transpires, the running backs are the point of attack for the Patriots. The receivers simply haven’t been getting it done. Edelman isn’t healthy and nobody else is really stepping up. James White and these other backs may be the best options the Patriots have this postseason.
Sony Michel (DK-$4,600)
Last week, the Patriots easily could’ve ridden the back of Sony Michel to victory, but they aren’t the same team we saw early in the season and it’s become quite obvious. The Patriots can’t leisurely stroll through games anymore, relying on Brady to bail them out on some rub route over and over again. This team has to understand it’s path to success is going to be best suited through the run game, since it’s the only good thing they have going right now.
I think the Patriots will use Michel thoroughly in this game as they rely heavily on three backs throughout the contest. Michel’s line this week is 70 yards and he’s got decent odds for a touchdown. It’s hard to avoid that $4,600 price tag with such volume.
Michael Thomas (DK-$9,300)
Michael Thomas broke the season record for receptions this year and he did so with three different guys throwing him the ball. Thomas is worth the play this week, due to the absurdly good matchup and perceived game script this week.
Xavier Rhodes used to be a name receivers feared, but this season, he’s been substantially worse in coverage. Now, he draws the most unguardable receiver in the league. Thomas has a line of 110 yards and 10.5 receptions. His EO this week is 27.5 and his GPI line is 25.11, so if Thomas can find the end zone in addition to the insane volume he’s going to get, he will truly be a huge play this week again.
Tyler Lockett (DK-$7,200)
Lockett’s line this week is 75 yards and 6 receptions. Though the weather isn’t going to be good, I’m not getting scared away here. I can easily see Wilson scrambling, hurling a ball into gusting winds and watching Tyler Lockett running under the ball like Willie Mays for a 58 yard touchdown. Even without the vision coming true, this run game is going to have serious problems this week.
For one, the Eagles are very strong against the run. Secondly, when these two played each other last time on November 24th, Rashaad Penny and Chris Carson were the leading rushers for the Seahawks. Now, Marshawn Lynch is back and Travis Homer is the third down option. The Seahawks are going to have to throw the ball and the Eagles secondary has been a big issue all season. I like Lockett here to get a heavy volume this week.
Stefon Diggs (DK-$6,600)
Diggs has an EO this week of 15.5 points and a GPI of over 17. It’s not a line I should be recommending this week, but the limited slate has forced my hand. One reason I like Diggs to outplay his EO this week is the health of Adam Thielen.
Thielen is likely going to draw Lattimore, which should leave Diggs in advantageous matchups. Diggs should also benefit from the perceived game script. The Saints are 8.5 point favorites in this game, so there’s a good chance we see a lot of targets for Diggs against a secondary who has been exposed against good receivers.
Dallas Goedert (DK-$5,200)
Dallas Goedert is the default #1 tight end now for the Eagles. Last week, without Ertz, he went 4 for 65 yards on ten targets (team leading). Fellow tight end Joshua Perkins matched his receptions count on four less targets and added a touchdown.
Goedert is the undisputed target favorite in an offense depleted of so many of its weapons. It’s hard to make a case of there being another tight end on this slate who will get as many targets as Goedert this week.
Joshua Perkins (DK-$2,900)
Zach Ertz will not be playing in the Wildcard game. He’s yet to even be cleared for contract, so that’s very telling. Last week, Joshua Perkins had 4 receptions for 50 yards and a touchdown while sliding in at the #2 tight end spot for the Eagles. Perkins was tied for second in targets last week, so he’s a tremendous value play for such a ridiculously cheap price.
Bills D (DK-$3,100)
The Bills are a high quality defense who does well against good athletes at quarterback. Don’t forget, the Bills stymied Lamar Jackson, Tom Brady, and a long list of others on route to this matchup. Deshaun Watson will likely be without his #2 receiver as Will Fuller is currently doubtful to play.
Without Fuller and the prospect of Tre’Davious White being on Hopkins, Watson is going to have some trouble on offense. It’s reasonable to expect a decent performance from the Bills this week.
Seahawks D (DK-$2,800)
The lack of weapons and the performance from November 24th are what has me all jazzed up about this Seahawks defense this week. I know we shouldn’t expect the Eagles to be held to nine points again at home, but we should expect the fill-in roster players from the deep depths of the depth chart and practice squad to struggle in a playoff game.
The current forecast calls for 40 degrees and 18 mph winds at the stadium. I can’t wait to see what a mess that games turns into.
DK Metcalf (DK-$6,100)
Metcalf has been a solid number two receiver for the Seahawks all season, hauling in 58 passes for 900 yards and 7 touchdowns. Following 6 for 81 and a touchdown in last week’s finale, Metcalf is poised for a solid matchup this week against a poor secondary in Philadelphia.
Metcalf may not be the high-upside play that Michael Thomas or John Brown will be this week, but if you like the matchup and feel like Russell is going to be throwing the ball, given the team’s lack of depth at running back, Metcalf is a strong option.
John Brown (DK-$6,000)
Brown’s EO is 14 this week, but there’s good reason to believe his ceiling should be very high. For one, the Bills don’t have the kind of offense that should be putting games in doubt early on. Secondly, there’s statistically a better chance this game stays close or the Bills slightly trail throughout, which only benefits Brown, especially in such a good matchup for him.
John Brown has cooked defenders (even Stephon Gilmore) throughout the season. He’s the most potent and reliable weapon at Allen’s disposal. Don’t you think he’s going to get plenty of work?
Kenny Stills (DK-$4,600)
Stills is the clever play of the week. With Tre’Davious White likely on Hopkins all game, the absence of Will Fuller will likely mean a big game for Kenny Stills. Though the volume may not normally be there, Stills had two touchdowns against the Titans in Week 15 and went 5 for 57 yards in Week 16. H
e’s getting work, and with Fuller out and Hopkins likely covered, Watson will have to give Stills more attention. At a low price of $4,600, I like Stills to have a big day.
Rex Burkhead (DK-$4,500)
Rex Burkhead’s EO this week is 8 points. It’s not flashy or particularly appealing, but if you need a fill and like what you’ve seen from Burkhead’s usage lately — 13 PPG over last three weeks — he is a great value play for the price.
Corey Davis (DK-$3,800)
AJ Brown should get the Stephon Gilmore attention this week, which will leave Davis as a primary benefactor. Davis is a solid route runner with good hands and has flashed elite traits at times through his first few seasons with the Titans. Alas, the inconsistency with production, emergence of AJ Brown, and nagging health issues have slowly pushed Davis to the background in Tennessee.
It should also be noted, when these teams last played each other in the postseason, Davis scored both touchdowns against the Patriots. The opportunity for Davis will be there. The only question for him will be, is Davis going to take advantage of it.
Collin is a former Army Intelligence and Logistics officer who got a little too into Football analysis. Since leaving the Army, he’s practically the Jack Ryan of football analysts. But he spends most of his days with his wife and two daughters, so he is clearly a better father than Jack Ryan.
Follow Collin on Twitter @CollinHulbert