DraftKings 2020 NFL Division Round DFS Picks And Analysis

NFL Divisional Round DFS DraftKings

Wildcard Week was very hit and miss overall.

I had a friend who used my lineups to get 139 points and I scored the same in a tournament, but both our standard lineups went for 1st in a 50/50 at 132 points while the other went for 18th and failed to cash with just 90 points, thanks to the dud from Drew Brees, Michael Thomas, and Stefon Diggs. Josh Allen and DK Metcalf were our top performers of the week, combining for 60 points.

DraftKings Lineup Scores for the 2019 Playoffs

Wildcard Week: 132 & 90

Our Playoff average: 111
Avg 50/50 cash in DraftKings playoffs: 105

Divisional Week preview

This week, we’re stacking the Chiefs and spreading the slate with a good variety of high upside plays. The weather in Green Bay calls for snow as there’s already pictures of a considerable amount of snow on the field. As for Kansas City, this is the highest point total projected for the week (51 points), so I’m zeroing in on this game as a target for lineup suitors.

I like the weather prospects for now, as the high on Sunday in Kansas City is currently 39 degrees. Wind could be a factor, but the volume of scoring we should expect should quell any concerns for our stacks to be hindered. Baltimore should be clear and in the 60s for kickoff Saturday, so there should be zero concern for conditions to swing the scoring.

As it is set every week, the prices on DraftKings are listed next to every player in parentheses.

Colin's Picks For Division Round of 2019 NFL Season
QBLamar Jackson (DK-$8,400)Pat Mahomes (DK-$7,500)
RBAaron Jones (DK-$7,400)Damien Williams (DK-$6,000)Raheem Mostert (DK-$5,800)
WRDavante Adams (DK-$7,800)Tyreek Hill (DK-$7,600)Stefon Diggs (DK-$5,600)
TEGeorge Kittle (DK-$6,200)Hayden Hurst (DK-$3,400)
Defense49ers D (DK-$3,000)Vikings D (DK-$2,700)
FlexMecole Hardman (DK-$4,100)Willie Snead (DK-$3,800)Duke Johnson (DK-$4,700)
Kendrick Bourne (DK-$3,700)

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson (DK-$8,400)

Lamar Jackson has had two weeks off now. It’s reasonable to expect there to be a bit of rust early in this game, but I’m confident Jackson should be able to have a massive day, especially considering the stakes. In all but one game this season, Jackson has eclipsed 20 fantasy points.

This week, there will be no holding back when Jackson faces the weak Titans defense. Jackson’s line this week is 230 yards passing, 85 yards rushing, and he’s expected to get three passing touchdowns. That puts his expected output at 29.5 points. That doesn’t even factor his rushing touchdown probability. Jackson’s GPI is 22.68, so he’s well clear of that number, thus, he’s got tremendous value this week.

Pat Mahomes (DK-$7,500)

As mentioned in the preview, the weather shouldn’t be an issue Sunday. The Texans still have a bad defense, even with the return of JJ Watt. Don’t buy the hype on the Texans this week. They’re a good collection of talent, but they’re very thin at a number of positions and they have holes all over their roster.

Pat Mahomes is looking more similar to the same MVP we saw a season ago, and this matchup should be great, based on the perceived game script. Pat Mahomes’ line this week is 310 yards, three touchdowns, and 20 rushing yards. Mahomes’ EO is 28 points this week and his GPI line is just 20.25, so he’s actually a better value than Lamar Jackson this week.

Running Backs

Aaron Jones (DK-$7,400)

Jones has a line this week of 120 total yards, four receptions, and a 75% chance of scoring a touchdown. That equates to an EO of 20 points. With a GPI line of 19.98, it’s a good value play on the week. The weather here may actually play to the advantage of Jones as the snow typically means more volume for a back and gives the offensive players an advantage cutting and making the first move on a play.

Plus, we know the Packers have shifted to a run first offense since Matt Lafluer took over as head coach. I expect this to be a game where the Packers shouldn’t be trailing and in pass-first mode the whole time, so we could see a lot of action from Jones. Even if the Packers fall behind, Joes is an excellent receiver out of the backfield, so his pass catching should keep him involved.

Damien Williams (DK-$6,000)

Williams has re-emerged as the go-to back in Kansas City. Following early season struggles with his health, Williams has erupted for an average of 26.3 points per game over his last two games. The Texans are not a good defense and the spread is 9.5 points, so Williams should see a generous amount of carries throughout the course of the game.

Like Jones, Williams is a pass catching back, so game script should affect him much anyways. Williams’ EO this week is around 17.5 points. His GPI line is 16.2, so he’s a good bet this week who carries solid value heading into Sunday.

Raheem Mostert (DK-$5,800)

Mostert doesn’t pass the test on the GPI/EO index this week. Keep in mind, he hasn’t passed this for the majority of his games, since his volume is so low. Alas, Mostert is the lead back in a three-headed rushing attack and the 49ers are a touchdown favorite this week.

The assumption here is that Mostert should get somewhere between 12-15 touches and his speed and usage in the Red Zone adds upside for big plays and scores unlike anyone else around his price point. Mostert is a risky play this week, but he could pay off huge if you’re willing to gamble on him.

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams (DK-$7,800)

Adams has a nice line this week of 90 yards, 8 receptions, and is a slight favorite to score a touchdown. That puts his EO at 20 points. His GPI line this week is 21. Though he doesn’t pass the test for the index, there aren’t a lot of options this week and Adams will be facing a mediocre secondary in Seattle.

Adams has a reputation as being a dependable #1 receiver with a high floor, so I think in such a high-pressure situation, Rodgers will be leaning heavily on his favorite target.

Tyreek Hill (DK-$7,600)

Tyreek Hill is an X-factor player who gets touches in a variety of ways. In addition to the six receptions he’s projected, Hill should get at least one carry and should also get at least one look on a deep ball. Hill doesn’t pass the index as well, but he’s likely to get an uptick in volume given the uncertainty of the status of Travis Kelce ahead of Sunday’s game.

Even if Kelce plays, Hill is facing a secondary that’s 21st against opposing receivers and he’s the clear top target in the Chiefs wide receiver corps. Hill is just one big play away from being a hugely successful play and with the total points line being 51, I like his odds this week.

Stefon Diggs (DK-$5,600)

We rolled with Diggs last week because of the doubts we had for Adam Thielen and the doubts about the Saints secondary. I was wrong on that, but few could’ve predicted Thielen could break out of his long-running slump and perform like the way he did. With Thielen getting stitches on his ankle this week, I can’t say I have a lot of confidence with him this week.

If Thielen plays, which he is expected to do, I like Diggs to see the more favorable matchups in the secondary. The Vikings are also seven-point dogs this week, so there’s reason to believe the passing volume this week should be much greater than it was just a week before. Diggs’ EO this week is 14 points with a GPI line of 15, so he’s not positive on the index, but as I said earlier, not many are this week and he has huge upside.

Tight Ends

George Kittle (DK-$6,200)

George Kittle has been the most consistent, most dependable player on this team since the midway point of the season. With the rest of the team being a mixed bag of results each week, Kittle has steadily produced for months now. With the Vikings offering up a soft secondary, Kittle should be able to find himself in favorable matchups. Kittle’s EO this week is 19 points. His GPI is only 16.74 so he’s one of the few good values on the board this week. I’ll be starting Kittle in both lineups this week.

Hayden Hurst (DK-$3,400)

There isn’t a clear #2 option at tight end this week as George Kittle is the undisputed top value play. Mark Andrews has been nursing knee and ankle injuries and it’s yet to be determined if he’ll even play on Saturday. If Andrews sits, Hayden Hurst’s value will absolutely skyrocket. As of now, there isn’t a good projection for him, so I’m going Kittle in both lineups. If Andrews sits, I’ll likely start Hurst and upgrade elsewhere.

Defense

49ers D (DK-$3,000)

The 49ers haven’t been great down the stretch. In fact, they’ve been one of the worst teams defensively over the last month of the season. While much of their struggles can be attributed to heath issues, they are still very capable of having massive games. With Kirk Cousins in town this week, the opportunity for sacks and interceptions is very much alive.

Vikings D (DK-$2,700)

The Vikings are really hit or miss on defense this season, but the playmakers are certainly there. With the Vikings facing Jimmy Garoppolo this week, there will be some opportunities for the secondary to make some big plays.

Also, the 49ers line isn’t fully healthy, so the blitz option should be a real concern for the 49ers this week. I like the upside for the Vikings this week and their floor shouldn’t be as low as we fear.

Flex

Mecole Hardman (DK-$4,100)

Hardman definitely doesn’t pass the index this week, but with the potential limited action of Travis Kelce, the Chiefs should have more guys emerge as big play targets. Hardman is a massive threat down the field with his explosive speed, so if you’re looking for a low-price option this week, Hardman is a good option to roll the dice on.

Also, if Hardman gets work in the slot this week, he’s likely going to be facing Vernon Hargreaves, one of the lowest graded corners by Pro Football Focus this season.

Willie Snead (DK-$3,800)

Even with the increasing health of Marquise Brown, Willie Snead has emerged this year as a safe option for Lamar Jackson in critical situations. With Mark Andrews in doubt this week, Snead could see a huge uptick in volume, especially given the Titans secondary woes.

With most of the focus on stopping the Ravens historic rushing attack, I expect Snead to see a lot of favorable matchups in the secondary.

Duke Johnson (DK-$4,700)

Duke Johnson is averaging 13.25 points over his past two games, but he’s looked better than Hyde in certain areas. Adding to his appeal this week, the perceived game script here is negative for the Texans as they stand as 9.5 point underdogs, making Johnson (the top pass catching back on the team) a good candidate for a lot of work as a receiving option.

Also, the Chiefs have been very good against opposing receivers this season but tend to give up a lot to opposing backs. I think Johnson is a good high floor play this week.

Kendrick Bourne (DK-$3,700)

Bourne is a cheap option for the flex or a receiver slot if you’d prefer him as a last resort over someone like Willie Snead. Bourne’s volume has never been impressive, but he gets plenty of targets and has sporadically found the end zone from time to time.

This week’s matchup is appealing as the Vikings struggle on the outsides. If the Vikings focus their efforts on Deebo or Sanders, as expected, Bourne could find himself in some favorable slots.

Collin is a former Army Intelligence and Logistics officer who got a little too into Football analysis. Since leaving the Army, he’s practically the Jack Ryan of football analysts. But he spends most of his days with his wife and two daughters, so he is clearly a better father than Jack Ryan.

Follow Collin on Twitter @CollinHulbert