Week 8 was a good bounce-back performance for us. We avoided the Chase Edmonds hype because of the matchup. I’m frustrated the Kamara news was so late, otherwise, I’d have recommended starting him in a lineup. We nailed the first true David Montgomery breakout game, which I’m pretty pumped about because the guy was only projected 11 points on ESPN but finished with 27.70 on DraftKings (Priced at a low $4,400). Chris Carson was okay. Stafford was huge. Tannehill was great for the price ($5,100).
Our cashing lineup (162) was bailed out by Tevin Coleman (41 points). That roster featured Josh Allen (18), Mack (16), Hopkins (25), Lockett (19) but also had several busts: Corey Davis (3), Hunter Henry (8), and the Bears defense (4). It just goes to show that you really need those two or three guys who go off. Not only does it hurt you to not have one, but it can hurt you if your opponent has Cooper Kupp (38), Kenny Golladay (32) or Mike Evans (46). The rough part is, when you choose the wrong receiver in a stack with a quarterback, you end up with a 26 point or 33 point differential. That’s the risk with receivers and why I like to flex running backs each week. The variance can hurt you and very seldom will help in 50/50 contests. Flexing WRs is really just a bold strategy for tournament plays.
DraftKings Lineup Scores for our 2019 season
Week 1: 168
Week 2: 146
Week 3: 185 & 158
Week 4: 142 & 127
Week 5: 182 & 162
Week 6: 160 & 110
Week 7: 146 & 85
Week 8: 162 & 136
Yearly average: 148
Avg 50/50 cash in DraftKings: 135
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Week 9 Preview
This week, we are stacking the Seahawks, Lions and the Jets this week in three quarterback-friendly games. We’ve been riding the Lions and chasing the right receiver for weeks now, but thanks to a few home run picks at running back, we’ve broken even in cashes. I like the Jets this week for a few reasons but mainly because Darnold looks prime against the Dolphins weak defense. Seattle faces one of the league’s stout rush defenses, so they should be taking to the air frequently here.
As it is set every week, the prices on DraftKings are listed next to every player in parentheses.
|Colin's Picks For Week 9 of 2019 NFL Season|
|QB||Russell Wilson (DK-$7,100)||Matt Stafford (DK-$6,800)||Sam Darnold (DK-$5,900)|
|RB||Aaron Jones (DK-$7,000)||Josh Jacobs (DK-$6,500)||Marlon Mack (DK-$6,100)|
|WR||Kenny Golladay (DK-$7,700)||Tyler Lockett (DK-$7,500)||Robby Anderson (DK-$5,500)|
|TE||Travis Kelce (DK-$6,900)||Darren Waller (DK-$6,300)||Dallas Goedert (DK-$3,100)|
|Defense||Seahawks D (DK-$3,600)||Browns D (DK-$3,100)||Broncos D (DK-$2,900)|
|Flex||Devante Parker (DK-$4,400)||Miles Sanders (DK-$4,600)||Jaylen Samuels (DK-$4,000)
|Allen Robinson II (DK-$6,800)||Marvin Jones Jr (DK-$6,000)|
Russell Wilson (DK-$7,100)
Russell Wilson has his best matchup of the year and here’s why: The Bucs have an elite rush defense. The Bucs have an awful pass defense. The Seahawks love to run the ball, but they have been known to pivot to exploit weak pass defenses. The Bucs also have a favorable matchup against the Seahawks defense that has the propensity to give up points from time to time. It’s got all the ingredients for a highly productive fantasy output from Wilson. For me, I’m riding with Wilson and Matt Stafford in my two 50/50 lineups and Sam Darnold for my tournament lineup.
Matt Stafford (DK-$6,800)
We’ve been rolling with Matt Stafford each week for the past few weeks now and he’s been killing it for value all season. This week is another great matchup in what is shaping up to be a shootout. This is one of the few 50-plus total points lines this week, neither team has shown to be defensively effective lately, and Stafford is facing the 26th ranked defense against opposing quarterbacks. Stafford’s line is 300 yards and 2.5 Touchdowns. He’s a high floor, high ceiling play.
Sam Darnold (DK-$5,900)
First of all, the Jets have been bad lately, which is no surprise, given their struggles protecting the quarterback. Second, they’ve abandoned the run, relying solely on their passing game to get them back into games. Gase met with Bell this week and we should expect an uptick in usage from Bell, but I can’t trust Bell until he at the very least, starts getting catches again.
In full PPR scoring, that’s critical to having a good scoring floor and Bell is approaching the easy part of the schedule, so hopefully, he can actually have a good week and be viable going forward. As for Darnold, the promise of increasing the run should open up for some solid play-action opportunities for him. Darnold has been very good in the past when he has time to throw and he’s not going to have another week with as favorable of a matchup until the next time he plays the Dolphins. His line this week is 250 yards passing and 2 touchdowns. He should be a safe play this week in a great matchup.
Aaron Jones (DK-$7,000)
Normally, I like to go with high volume plays. It lowers variance and is generally less concerning throughout the duration of the contest. It’s time to throw it out the window for one week and one play. Let’s shake it up a bit and see if we can get a jolt this week in the form of a big play from a player who’s been providing them all season. Jones’ total yardage line is 110 yards, so he’s priced really well for the projection. I think the Chargers rush defense is not good, at all. There should be plenty of opportunities for Jones to get chunk plays and touchdowns.
Josh Jacobs (DK-$6,500)
The Lions have allowed a top 13 finish by opposing running backs in every game this season. Jacobs is the clear lead back in Oakland and the Raiders like to run the ball. It’s a pretty clear and obvious play. Jacobs’ line is over 110 and a shootout looms in Oakland Sunday. Jacobs is one of the safest plays this week.
Derrick Henry (DK-$5,700)
Henry’s line is around 100 yards this week. He’s got a very favorable matchup against a Panthers team who surrendered four touchdowns to Tevin Coleman just a week ago. If the Panthers have a weakness on defense, it’s stopping the run, and the Titans love to run the ball. This is another simple, straightforward play. Henry may not have the receiving upside of Aaron Jones, but he has the most potential among the top three backs here to get the most carries.
Kenny Golladay (DK-$7,700)
Buckle up, folks. I’ll be the first one to jump out of a tall window if this guy goes for one catch again after I recommend him, while Marvin Jones goes for four — insert expletive here — touchdowns. If I get this flipped for the third time, I’m going to be upset, to say the very least. Needless to say, Golladay has been a great value in nearly every game this season. He’s got an outstanding matchup this week against a team that was just cut fifty different ways by Deandre Hopkins. Though the Lions are more dangerous across the board from the receiver position, you’ll want the top target on an elite passing offense in a good matchup. It really is just that simple. Golladay’s line this week is 85 yards.
Tyler Lockett (DK-$7,500)
Lockett is a stack option for those of you starting Wilson, much like Golladay is to Stafford. Lockett has an incredible matchup against a garbage-level pass defense. No offense to the Bucs, they have a great rush defense, but their passing defense is abysmal. That’s what makes Lockett such a great option this week. He’s going to get the volume we are typically unsure of because the Seahawks are finally going to have to commit to attacking a team’s weak passing defense and avoiding their rush defense. Lockett’s line this week is 85 yards. Expect a load of targets here.
Robby Anderson (DK-$5,500)
Anderson rounds out our trio of stacks this week. We’ve made the case for why the Jets have favorable matchups across the board. Anderson is not only a deep threat, but he’s also great at attacking the intermediate part of the field. One can make a case Jamison Crowder may get the bulk of targets, but when it comes to finding the end zone, Anderson is your guy. There’s a chance Anderson won’t see near the volume of Golladay and Lockett — that’s actually the more likely scenario — but if Anderson can connect with Darnold for just one deep ball, he can give you a really good chance in a tournament. For variance reasons, I’m keeping my distance in 50/50s.
Travis Kelce (DK-$6,900)
Kelce has demonstrated he is the preferred target for Matt Moore. We know that Moore favors tight ends, based on his extensive career, but Kelce has shown competence and potency as not just a check-down option, but a primary option as well. With all the other options at tight end this week, there are few options that have a floor as high as Kelce. Kelce’s line this week is yet to be posted, but given his last output against the Packers, I think Kelce is a solid play this week and should get at least five receptions to give you a nice floor.
Darren Waller (DK-$6,300)
Waller got his third touchdown of the season last week. Oddly enough, it was just one of two catches for 11 yards on the day. It was a strange output for a guy who has been high volume all year. Sure, there were plays called back, there were longer targets that didn’t work out, but Waller was more involved than the box score indicates. He’s still running a high rate of routes and playing a high rate of snaps. It’s best we trust it this week with Darrius Slay likely being matched up with Tyrell Williams. This should open up the field more for Waller. Waller’s line this week is 75 yards. I’m starting Waller in both lineups.
Dallas Goedert (DK-$3,100)
Goedert is the cheap play this week. For some reason, maybe volume, Goedert is priced at just $3,100 on DraftKings. It’s an odd price point, especially given the favorable matchup against the Bears. If you feel strongly about the top end receivers this week and want a cheap plug-in elsewhere, Goedert is a great option here. His line this week is not provided, but I wouldn’t let it scare you off. Rarely do #2 tight ends ever have a line, so don’t worry too much.
Seahawks D (DK-$3,600)
The Bucs are among the league leaders in turnovers. This game also appears to be a perfect matchup for Russell Wilson. I expect the Bucs will be playing from behind, trying to keep up in this potential shootout, but with that comes the increased risk of a Jameis Winston turnover. The Jameis Winston turnovers have become a reasonable expectation in 2019, so I like the odds here.
Browns D (DK-$3,100)
The Browns have a great blitz and not a whole lot else on defense. Their secondary is good, depending on the situation and for this week, I like the potential. With the Broncos starting a backup quarterback, it tells me they plan on committing to the run and using play-action to get their quarterback settled in. This is a reasonable expectation. Thus, it’s also reasonable to expect the Browns to stack the box to stop the run. This should open up the play-action for Allen to get settled in. The issue I have here is that the Browns have talented corners, so I think there’s a chance they can bait Allen into a few mistakes and a few sacks here.
Broncos D (DK-$2,900)
The Broncos, despite losing one of their defensive ends, are still a solid pass rush. The Browns are still a bad pass protection unit. That’s a simple observation, but it’s really all you need this week in a week lacking great defensive matchups. With defenses, it’s a lot more fickle than we wished it were. The Broncos are a leap of faith this week but a very safe play, given their 3rd ranked defensive DVOA.
Devante Parker (DK-$4,400)
Parker’s line isn’t especially high (60 yards) but his price is too low to ignore. In a week of great passing potential across the league, this is the best matchup for the Dolphins passing attack all season. Why not take a chance on the Dolphins top receiving option this week?
Miles Sanders (DK-$4,600)
Miles Sanders finally had his breakout performance. Unfortunately, he still didn’t get the volume we hoped for. It’s hard to tell how much usage Sanders will get this week, but it’s clear he’s the Austin Ekeler type in this offense, being a receiving backfield who only gets a few carries.
I’m sure Sanders’ workload will expand, but will it be this week? The Bears are vulnerable on the ground, so there’s a reason to believe it maybe this week. Regardless, Sanders has a relatively high floor via the receptions and he’s super cheap, so he’s worth a shot in the flex or at running back this week if you need a cheap plug or are looking for a homerun play in a tournament.
Jaylen Samuels (DK-$4,000)
Pay attention to the game time status of James Conner this week. Because if Conner sits, Jaylen Samuels will be a homerun play for any lineup format. Samuels is a solid pass-catching back who has flashes ability on occasion between the tackles, so he has big upside here if Conner is out.
Allen Robinson II (DK-$6,800)
Robinson has a difficult ceiling to determine. Mitch Trubisky is such an inept passer at times, it gives us little confidence in Robinson’s ability to exploit weak pass defenses. This week, however, seems quite clear. Robinson has more than a plus matchup versus a defense who has been torn to shreds against decent passing offenses in 2019. If there’s one player who has demonstrated consistency in 2019, it’s been Allen Robinson. Play him this week with confidence. With a line of 85 yards at just a price of $6,800, he’s a solid flex option this week for your lineups.
Marvin Jones Jr (DK-$6,000)
I’m covering my bases this week so I don’t get bit in the rear end when one or the other goes off, so I’m going with Marvin Jones this week as a flex option if you want to make sure you take the most advantage of the Matt Stafford play this week. He’s pretty cheap for the line of 67 yards. This, of course, only means Danny Amendola will have 120 yards and two scores this week. Good luck!
Collin is a former Army Intelligence and Logistics officer who got a little too into Football analysis. Since leaving the Army, he’s practically the Jack Ryan of football analysts. But he spends most of his days with his wife and two daughters, so he is clearly a better father than Jack Ryan.
Follow Collin on Twitter @CollinHulbert