Week 5 was good by the performances. Unfortunately, there were five players who scored over 40 points and many were rostered in DFS lineups. That meant our score of 182 in one 50/50 was good enough to cash, but the other, 162, did not. If you’re keeping track, that means we’ve cashed in 6 of 8 lineups this season.
Auden Tate’s dropped touchdown in the first quarter on a simple slant route was the difference for the second lineup not cashing. I had originally planned for three defenses last week, which was why the Colts were listed but the Eagles were actually the team I wrote about in the paragraph. The Colts were supposed to be a low-priced tournament play but I fudged the formatting and it wiped the Colts’ writeup after I noticed it was the night game (I only do the main slate).
Regardless, all three defenses last week were great and I’ll happily take credit for picking the Colts against the Chiefs last week since it turned out to be such an insanely hopeful choice. We took a risk last week with the Bengals Falcons stacks and it worked to an extent. But as I stated last week, the Falcons stack was probably a safer play and the Bengals were the value, discount play. I’ll prioritize both the same way this week.
This week, we are focusing on the Cardinals stack (value lineup), the Texans stack (safe lineup) and the Vikings (high variance Lineup). You’ll want to mix and match some other players in there, but these are the base lineups for the week. The High Variance lineup may be most suitable for those of you doing tournaments.
DraftKings Lineup Scores for our 2019 season
Week 1: 168
Week 2: 146
Week 3: 185 & 158
Week 4: 142 & 127
Week 5: 182 & 162
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Week 6 Preview
Week 6 isn’t going to be the slam dunk at the defense position this week as we had 50 combined points between our two top defenses a week ago (Patriots & Eagles, with Colts #3). Fortunately for us, there’s plenty of good choices at receiver and quarterback this week. It’s a deep pool for value at both with running back being more of a question mark at the top.
As it is set every week, the prices on DraftKings are listed next to every player in parentheses.
|Colin's Picks For Week 6 of 2019 NFL Season|
|QB||Deshaun Watson (DK-$6,700)||Kyler Murray (DK-$6,500)||Kirk Cousins (DK-$5,200)|
|RB||Alvin Kamara (DK-$8,000)||Nick Chubb (DK-$7,300)||Tevin Coleman (DK-$4,400)|
|WR||Adam Thielen (DK-$6,700)||Larry Fitzgerald (DK-$6,100)||Dede Westbrook (DK-$5,100)|
|TE||Austin Hooper (DK-$5,000)||Will Dissly (DK-$4,900)||George Kittle (DK-$5,200)|
|Defense||Titans D (DK-$2,900)||Jets D (DK-$1,500)||49ers D (DK-$2,700)|
|Flex||Tyler Boyd (DK-$6,300)||Chase Edmonds (DK-$4,600)||Matt Breida (DK-$5,100)
Deshaun Watson (DK-$6,700)
I’m still deciding if I’m going to run my first lineup through Watson or Murray but for now, let’s roll with Watson. It’ll likely be a game-time decision for me, but the Oddsmakers are putting Watson’s line above Murray for just a $200 bump. It’s at 300 yards passing, 40 rushing yards, and 2.75 touchdowns.
Now, I could very well be wrong here, but I’ve got two reasons why I think this may be an advantage to Murray. For one, the Chiefs have a weak rush defense, so we’re going to see a good bit of Carlos Hyde, unless it starts getting into a negative game script for the Texans. On Murray’s end, Trey Edmonds is looking like the probable starter and the Falcons are actually pretty good against the run. The Falcons are going to keep pace in this game and they can’t exactly run the ball well, so there should be a lot more stoppages of the clock. Then again, you can make the case the Chiefs game will also be a shootout, especially with a game line of 55.5 total points. Whether you choose Murray or Watson, they should both be very solid.
Kyler Murray (DK-$6,500)
This matchup against the Falcons should be the meatiest (is that a word?) matchup for Kyler Murray all season. He’s the centerpiece of my safe lineup this week and should be stacked with Larry Fitzgerald, especially with Christian Kirk listed as questionable. Oddsmakers have set Murray’s line at two touchdowns and 280 yards passing. He’s also pegged for 35 yards rushing.
The rushing floor here helps, but the big factor here for me is the Falcons poor overall defense. They are dead last in the adjusted sack rate and just extremely bad in pass defense. If they try to pressure Kyler, he will take off, but one important thing to consider is that not pressuring Kyler is worse when you look back on how accurate he was at Oklahoma behind a good offensive line. Kyler should feast in this game.
Kirk Cousins (DK-$5,200)
Last week was a realization for the Giants, an epiphany of sorts for the run-happy Vikings staff. Coming into last week, the Vikings did all they could to keep Kirk Cousins from jeopardizing their chances of winning. However, last week was a sigh of relief for those who started him against a poor Giants defense as the Vikings attacked the Giants at their point of weakness, their pass defense.
This week is even more of an obvious tip-off for the Vikings game plan because the Eagles have one of the league’s elite rush defenses but also one of the league’s worst pass defenses. His line this week is only 1.75 TDs and 250 yards passing. I think this game should be somewhat of a shootout. If Cousins gets time in the pocket to attack this secondary, it should be a big day for Cousins and all who start him.
Alvin Kamara (DK-$8,000)
Kamara picked up a slight ankle injury and was limited in practice, but if he gets a full practice in Friday, fear not. The Jaguars have been terrible at stopping running backs this season, so you can expect them to lean on him heavily in a game in which Michael Thomas will be drawing coverage from the recently cleared Jalen Ramsey. Kamara’s line is around 125 total yards and his receptions line is 6.5, so it’s a very high floor/high ceiling week.
Nick Chubb (DK-$7,300)
Chubb is getting the green light here for a few reasons. For one, the Seahawks pass rush is awful, so if they commit to stopping Baker, which they’ll have to do at some point relatively early, the lanes and space should open up for Nick Chubb. It’s only going to take a small gap or a missed tackle in space for a guy like Chubb to turn a routine big gain into a long touchdown run or catch. Chubb’s line is 3.5 receptions and 120 total yards. Expect big things for the second-year man out of Georgia.
Tevin Coleman (DK-$4,400)
Don’t be fooled by Matt Breida last week. He’s an incredible running back and on par with Coleman in the talent department. Both appear to be on par in the opportunities department as well, with the slight edge going to Coleman for his history as a primary pass catcher in Atlanta under Kyle Shanahan. Coleman’s ceiling will never really be that high, due to the three-headed rushing attack going on in San Francisco, but his floor should be decent behind that run blocking. I get Juszczyk is out, but even so, the Rams defense is poor against the run and the 49ers love to pound it. Coleman’s line is 65 rushing yards and he has no receiving line, so for the price, he’s carrying immense value this week.
Adam Thielen (DK-$6,700)
At first, I thought this price was a mistake. Thielen’s line for the week is 85 yards. For this price on DraftKings, that’s a steal. Stack him with Cousins in a tournament lineup or just slot him in one of the other 50/50s because he could have a monster day. As long as Cousins gets time, they’re going to be attacking this bottom tier secondary as much as they possibly can this week. Expect a high floor and a high ceiling for Thielen this week.
Larry Fitzgerald (DK-$6,100)
Fitz is finally making the column. After all these years, if someone told me I’d be writing about Larry Fitzgerald and recommending him in DFS in 2019, I’d tell them they’re insane. Well, Larry has a date with a very vulnerable secondary who just got absolutely worked against the Texans. Larry’s line is YTBD because of the status of David Johnson but fear not. Kyler Murray will be facing the league’s worst pass rush as well. This is my lock pick of the week and I’m confident Larry turns back the clock and turns heads on Sunday in what will surely be a throwback performance for the 36-year-old.
Dede Westbrook (DK-$5,100)
I’m going to give a shout out to NFL.com’s Michael Florio on this one. Florio’s slot report revealed how Dede Westbrook will be facing the second-worst team at defending the slot, the Saints. Westbrook has also been targeted more than any other receiver in that offense this season, including DJ Chark of course. Westbrook’s line is 6 receptions and 55 yards, but I anticipate he’s going to have a much bigger week this week, especially since he’s really come on as of late, so the connection between the two is blossoming.
Austin Hooper (DK-$5,000)
Austin Hooper has surprised us all this year. He’s been a much more frequent target of Matt Ryan than anyone predicted this season, and this should be another really big week for him as he goes up against the league’s worst team at defending the tight end position. For such a low price and a moderately high line of 65 yards, Hooper should produce well for the price this week.
Will Dissly (DK-$4,900)
Will Dissly is a little lower this week on the expected yardage set by oddsmakers (60 yards). Don’t let it deter you from the promising matchup he has. The Cleveland Browns haven’t exactly faced a murderers row of tight ends this season and in their last game when they finally ran into a good one in George Kittle — Kittle burned them with 88 total yards and a touchdown. Dissly has been very involved this season and has touchdowns in a majority of games he’s played since joining the team. He’s a red-zone option and a damn good one, especially considering how the Browns are ranked 7th against opposing wide receivers.
George Kittle (DK-$5,200)
I leave Kittle out last week because of Monday night and my firm rules on Sunday games-only and he goes out and gets a touchdown and 88 total yards. I list this man every week because he’s the best all-around tight end in football. He’s insanely difficult to cover, he blocks better than any tight end in football, and he’s a playmaker when the ball is in his hands. Kittle has an 80-yard line this week so I’ll be flexing him in a lineup and hoping the low pricetag pays off. He’s the best value play at the position this week at only $5,200. Pay and play this man in what should be a very offensive-leaning game.
Titans D (DK-$2,900)
This is the only defense I feel completely safe about this week. They’re facing Joe Flacco. It’s a low total points line. I don’t feel very good about any defenses this week outside of maybe Baltimore, so scoop them up if you can afford them and cross your fingers they can put some heat on Joe Flacco.
Jets D (DK-$1,500)
This defense is purely for roster filling purposes. I don’t have some advanced data to show you that’s going to give you a surprisingly good pick here. We are choosing them strictly on budget, but it doesn’t mean they’ll be awful. They are at home, so that’s one positive, right? They’re also playing the Cowboys, who have been turning the ball over a lot lately. Their run defense is pretty solid and they do have Jamaal Adams in the secondary, last I checked. If the Jets are doing their due diligence for this game, they’ll recognize just how bad the Cowboys have been in pass protection this season. If they can pressure Dak, we could see the Cowboys’ troubles continuing this week.
49ers D (DK-$2,700)
Don’t freak out. This one is kind of questionable but hey, I did pick the Eagles last week AND the Colts against the Chiefs, technically. Hear me out, the 49ers have likely the second smartest coach in the NFL. Kyle Shanahan has been a guy I’ve been beating the drum for since he was in DC on the Redskins staff. This guy unlocked the 2016 Falcons and worked magic his first season in San Francisco, where he was presented with a garbage defense, rotated a plethora of quarterbacks most people had never heard of, and made them look pretty good in the process.
This season, the 49ers are 3rd in Adjusted Sack Rate (ASR) and boast a top 10 rush defense to go with it. The Rams have struggled at times in pass protection and might possibly be without Todd Gurley Sunday. It’s got all the ingredients for a 49ers victory. Don’t be scared, their floor is higher than you may think.
Tyler Boyd (DK-$6,300)
Boyd may actually be the best value receiver this week. Oddsmakers have him around 84 receiving yards, so the $6,300 tag is very close to Thielen’s projected total, but he’s $400 cheaper. Boyd will face the NFL’s fifth-worst team at defending the slot, so there should be plenty for Boyd to do this week while working out of the slot.
Chase Edmonds (DK-$4,600)
Chase Edmonds should be in one of your lineups if David Johnson isn’t cleared in time for the game. He’s got a lot of juice and is a very talented back. He’s not the receiver DJ is, but if David Johnson is out, Edmonds will be getting a lions share of rushes and receptions in the game. If you can afford him over Tevin Coleman, I’d probably go with Edmonds because of the insanely easy matchup he has with the Falcons.
Matt Breida (DK-$5,100)
Breida is the current leader in Yards Per Carry (YPC) in the NFL after five weeks (minimum 30 carries). It should come as no surprise that even after the loss of the best fullback in the league to an MCL sprain, Kyle Juszczyk, Breida is still a dynamic and explosive running back who is facing the 20th ranked rush defense in the NFL, the LA Rams. Breida has now clocked the fastest land speed mark for a ball carrier in each of the past two seasons.
He will get a steady supply of touches in this game, so expect him to make the most of his non-Bell cow touches. Oddsmakers have set his line at 60 yards rushing, but you’re paying for the ceiling here. He’s not a slam dunk, but if you’re playing a tournament-style DFS contest, he’s a great option, simply for his breakaway ability.
Collin is a former Army Intelligence and Logistics officer who got a little too into Football analysis. Since leaving the Army, he’s practically the Jack Ryan of football analysts. But he spends most of his days with his wife and two daughters, so he is clearly a better father than Jack Ryan.
Follow Collin on Twitter @CollinHulbert