Week 16 was a smash week for us. Our two lineups went big (182 & 161). Saquan Barkley, paired with Lamar Jackson and cheap fills elsewhere (Colts D, Michael Gallup, etc), killed it with 182. The second lineup featuring Drew Brees, Kenyan Drake, and Phillip Lindsay blew up with a 161 point week. Despite the letdown from Mixon and the Broncos defense, the rest of the roster put up acceptable, double-digit performances across the board.
It was a great week overall as we had the players who really popped this week. The cash lines this week were a little lower than average (132 and 130), so odds are, if you played variations of our lineups last week, you would have cashed about 88% of the time in 50/50 contests.
DraftKings Lineup Scores for our 2019 season
Week 1: 168
Week 2: 146
Week 3: 185 & 158
Week 4: 142 & 127
Week 5: 182 & 162
Week 6: 160 & 110
Week 7: 146 & 85
Week 8: 162 & 136
Week 9: 201 & 172
Week 10: 176 & 134
Week 11: 160 & 137
Week 12: 161 & 127
Week 13: 165 & 124
Week 14: 102 & 99
Week 15: 170 & 143
Week 16: 182 & 161
Yearly average: 149.43
Avg 50/50 cash in DraftKings: 133.82
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Week 17 Preview
This week, we’re stacking the Titans and the Eagles. We’re filling up the lineups with players who are incentivized to do well and also have good matchups. Week 17 is traditionally a very homerun/strikeout type of week, so it’s critical to target players who have the biggest reasons to play well and fade the rest.
As it is set every week, the prices on DraftKings are listed next to every player in parentheses.
|Colin's Picks For Week 17 of 2019 NFL Season|
|QB||Ryan Tannehill (DK-$6,800)||Carson Wentz (DK-$6,100)||Jared Goff (DK-$6,200)|
|RB||Aaron Jones (DK-$8,200)||Ezekiel Elliott (DK-$8,000)||Alvin Kamara (DK-$7,800)|
|WR||AJ Brown (DK-$7,000)||Michael Gallup (DK-$5,400)||Greg Ward (DK-$4,700)|
|TE||Dallas Goedert (DK-$4,900)||Jonnu Smith (DK-$4,200)|
|Defense||Steelers D (DK-$3,000)||Jets D (DK-$2,700)||Colts D (DK-$3,200)|
|Flex||DeAndre Washington (DK-$5,200)||Damien Williams (DK-$4,700)||Le’Veon Bell (DK-$5,800)
|Hunter Renfrow (DK-$4,500)||Breshad Perriman (DK-$6,700)|
Ryan Tannehill (DK-$6,800)
Ryan Tannehill had another great week last week. I was tempted to put him over Drew Brees last week but thought the depleted weapons on offense would cause some issues. Regardless, Tannehill has been superb this season since taking over the starting gig.
By most ratings, he’s the #2 quarterback since taking over among the entire league. This week, Tannehill will likely face some starters but mainly the second-team unit in a game that will determine their postseason fate.
This unit he faces is ranked #31 against opposing QBs, so there’s all the incentive in the world the Titans will come out firing on all cylinders on Sunday. If the Chiefs do win the noon game, slot Tannehill in a lineup. There’s currently no line out for Tannehill for props.
Carson Wentz (DK-$6,100)
Wentz checks all the boxes to constitute a good start. He’s facing a good offense and the Eagles are in a virtual must-win scenario. Though Wentz will be without Zach Ertz, his new favorite targets, Greg Ward and Dallas Goedert, will be cheap stacking options to pair with Wentz, so you’ll be able to afford a lot of high dollar players elsewhere in your lineup. Wentz currently has no prop line.
Jared Goff (DK-$6,200)
Goff is the risky play this week for a couple of reasons. For one, there’s no incentive for him to have a big game or even play for that matter. The second risk is the perceived game script.
If the Rams get out to a big lead, which I imagine will be the case if they’re facing a weak Cardinals team without its quarterback and best corner, Goff probably won’t have enough volume to warrant a big play for the week. Goff currently has no prop line either.
Aaron Jones (DK-$8,200)
Aaron Jones reaped the benefits of carrying the load by himself last week. Following the shoulder injury to Jamaal Williams, Jones went on to get 25 fantasy points in the second half alone. With Williams likely out this week, it will be all on Aaron Jones to potentially help the Packers earn a bye in the playoffs.
Last week, the Lions gave up the most rushing yards to Phillip Lindsay all season. Lindsay is a quick-twitch back who profiles similarly to Jones. I like Jones this week to have a big day against the Lions.
Ezekiel Elliott (DK-$8,000)
Ezekiel Elliott has a very favorable matchup, plus incentive this week. The Cowboys are likely going to ride Zeke to victory here in their quest for a division title. Zeke’s line here is 130 total yards, 4.5 receptions, and a 75% chance to score, which makes his EO about 23 points this week. With a GPI line of just 21.6, Zeke looks like a nice smash play this week.
Alvin Kamara (DK-$7,800)
Kamara found the end zone last week for the first time since Week 3. In fact, he found the end zone twice en route to a 29-point performance. This week, Kamara and the Saints need to win to ensure they get a first-round bye in the playoffs.
The Panthers have been one of the worst teams in the league on rush defense. Last week, they gave up over a hundred yards on the ground to the Colts on limited touches and against a positive game script. They knew it was coming and still couldn’t stop it. Without knowing how the playoff situation changes until the end of the day, it’s likely the Saints will be keeping their foot on the gas well into this one. Kamara’s EO is 22.5 and his GPI line is 21.06.
AJ Brown (DK-$7,000)
AJ Brown has no line this week but who cares, honestly. He absolutely destroyed this Texans secondary the last time these two played and he’s got everything going in his favor this matchup.
There’s really not a whole lot else to say about this play. Even if the Chiefs lose and it opens the door for the Texans to move into the #3 seed, the Titans are still going to be throwing the ball plenty in the game.
Michael Gallup (DK-$5,400)
During this period where Amari Cooper clearly hasn’t been fully healthy, Michael Gallup has stepped up as the preferred target in this offense. This week, Gallup has both incentive for playoffs and a favorable matchup.
The Redskins were picked apart last week against the Giants in an absolutely masterful performance by Daniel Jones. There’s going to be plenty to go around here, so start Gallup with confidence this week.
Greg Ward (DK-$4,700)
Ward has emerged over the past two weeks as the #1 receiver for Carson Wentz. Over that span, he’s averaged 5.5 receptions and 66 yards receiving. This week, he’s facing the #30 ranked defense against receivers. Though he may not be the #1 target, Ward has demonstrated he can step up and get it done.
Ward has no line this week but consider Carson Wentz has thrown for over 300 yards in three of the past four games. In what is expected to be a bit of a shootout, expect another big day from Wentz and Ward.
Dallas Goedert (DK-$4,900)
Dallas Goedert is likely going to be the target monster in the upcoming game against the Giants. Last week, Goedert had a big week, showing why he was such a high draft pick last year. This week, Goedert has both an incentive and a good matchup.
Though there’s no line for Goedert in the game, he’s a cheap value play this week with superb upside. I’m likely starting Goedert in both lineups this week and flexing Jonnu Smith.
Jonnu Smith (DK-$4,200)
Jonnu Smith may only have 61.5 yards receiving, on average, over his past two games, but he’s got a lot of upside this week in what should be a high output week from the Titans.
Smith currently has no line on the week but as far as the small field of valuable tight ends goes this season, he’s as close to a good bet as you can have in a week of what will surely be some strange and surprising performances.
Steelers D (DK-$3,000)
The Steelers look like a good play this week because they’re facing the Ravens second-team offense in a very low total point estimated game (37 points).
Jets D (DK-$2,700)
I like the Jets this week solely from the potential matchup with the second-team offense in Buffalo. The total points line is just 36.5, so it’s a safe play at the very least. I really like the potential of the Jets defense in this one. They’re a stout rush defense, so a potential game against Matt Barley looks really appealing.
Colts D (DK-$3,200)
The Colts had their best game of the season last week and their defense also had its best game. I’m thrilled I recommended them last week and am looking forward to this week’s soft matchup against a weak Jacksonville offense.
DeAndre Washington (DK-$5,200)
Washington came in and had over 90 total yards in relief of Josh Jacobs two weeks ago. With Jacobs sitting out this game as well, Washington will have a clear path against the league’s 22nd ranked defense.
He offers appeal in the passing game as well, so he shouldn’t be schemed out of the game at any point. At the very least, Washington should be a decent floor play this week with a touchdown upside.
Damien Williams (DK-$4,700)
His EO is 14 this week. It’s not spectacular but consider the fact the Chiefs are averaging a little over one touchdown a game this season from the running back position and he’s going to be the lead back this week.
Also, the Chargers have a strong secondary, but struggle mightily against the run. Start Williams as a high-value play with upside in a must-win game for the Chiefs’ playoff positioning hopes.
Le’Veon Bell (DK-$5,800)
Bell may not have a sexy resume this season, but at this price, he only needs 15.6 points to be a good value play this week. Bell is going to have a good matchup against a weak Bills rush defense and should see a considerable number of backups on the defensive side of the ball.
Hunter Renfrow (DK-$4,500)
In Renfrow’s first action in months, he reeled in 7 receptions for 107 yards and a score. In a game they desperately need to win, Renfrow should see a good amount of targets and could prove to be extremely economic, given his $4,500 price tag.
Breshad Perriman (DK-$6,700)
Over the past two games, Perriman has averaged over 29 fantasy points per game. It’s a short sample size, but it’s the full slate of games he’s had since being named the starter. Perriman has a good-looking matchup this week against a suspect Falcons secondary.
Though there’s currently no line for Perriman on the week, he should be as safe of a play as any receiver this week, especially given Jameis’ output for passing volume this season and lack of other options.
Collin is a former Army Intelligence and Logistics officer who got a little too into Football analysis. Since leaving the Army, he’s practically the Jack Ryan of football analysts. But he spends most of his days with his wife and two daughters, so he is clearly a better father than Jack Ryan.
Follow Collin on Twitter @CollinHulbert