Week 15 was the bounce-back we needed. I was so close to not putting Jameis Winston in the slate this week because of injury concerns, but we stuck with him and he paid off big.
The Bucs stack went well but could’ve gone much better, had Godwin not gotten injured amidst a great game. The Browns stack spoiled our would-be second cash of the day. Leave it to Freddie Kitchens and the Browns to somehow be the only team to look inept passing against the Cardinals secondary. We hit big on starting Tyler Higbee in both lineups, as I said we would. Carson, Jones, Hopkins, Godwin, Conley, Patriots D, Seahawks D, and all the tight ends we recommended were solid plays. It was a solid week, but aside from Jameis, Carson, and Higbee, there were some monster performers we missed out on.
This week’s cash was 170 over a cash line of 152 and the bust was a 143 over a cash line of 149. Because of a few monster days from guys like Perriman, Drake, Zeke, Barkley, Julio Jones, and a few others, the cash lines were unusually high.
DraftKings Lineup Scores for our 2019 season
Week 1: 168
Week 2: 146
Week 3: 185 & 158
Week 4: 142 & 127
Week 5: 182 & 162
Week 6: 160 & 110
Week 7: 146 & 85
Week 8: 162 & 136
Week 9: 201 & 172
Week 10: 176 & 134
Week 11: 160 & 137
Week 12: 161 & 127
Week 13: 165 & 124
Week 14: 102 & 99
Week 15: 170 & 143
Yearly average: 147.85
Avg 50/50 cash in DraftKings: 134.02
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Week 16 Preview
This week, we’re stacking no one in our main two lineups. The Saturday slate (3) games takes away from the main Sunday slate, but worry not. There’s plenty of good plays to be made for Sunday. I like the Titans players for a variety of reasons. One primary reason is how we perceive the game script. The Titans will likely be in a shootout. The Saints have a solid rush defense and Derrick Henry is a little banged up. Also, the Saints have demonstrated a real struggle against teams in the passing game all season. Some teams had quarterbacks who weren’t simply talented enough to exploit the secondary, but the Titans have been shredding opposing secondaries going on two months now.
As for the rest of the field, we will be targeting more friendly matchups with big upside.
As it is set every week, the prices on DraftKings are listed next to every player in parentheses.
|Colin's Picks For Week 16 of 2019 NFL Season|
|QB||Lamar Jackson (DK-$8,000) c||Drew Brees (DK-$6,900)||Drew Lock (DK-$5,900)|
|RB||Saquan Barkley (DK-$8,300)||Joe Mixon (DK-$6,600)||Kenyan Drake (DK-$6,300)|
|WR||Keenan Allen (DK-$6,300)||Terry McLaurin (DK-$6,200)||Cortland Sutton (DK-$6,200)|
|TE||Jacob Hollister (DK-$4,200)||Jonnu Smith (DK-$3,800)||Noah Fant (DK-$3,700)|
|Defense||Steelers D (DK-$3,900)||Broncos D (DK-$3,500)||Colts D (DK-$3,300)|
|Flex||DeAndre Washington (DK-$4,000)||Austin Ekeler (DK-$6,100)||Michael Gallup (DK-$5,500)
|Phillip Lindsay (DK-$5,300)|
Lamar Jackson (DK-$8,000)
Don’t worry about the prospect of Lamar Jackson being benched in this game. That narrative keeps running each week and it’s silly, especially considering the Ravens need to win this game to secure the top seed. The Ravens are also looking to avenge their lopsided home loss to the Browns earlier in the season. Jackson’s line this week is 225 yards passing, 3.5 passing touchdowns, and 75 rushing yards, with a 50% chance to score a rushing touchdown.
His Good Performance Index line (2.7 x Cost) is 21.6 points. His Expected Output (EO) is 33.5 points. Despite the absurd cost, he’s clearly still a great value play for the week.
Drew Brees (DK-$6,900)
Drew Brees is coming off back to back huge performances. Now, he’s set to roll into Tennessee to help protect the team’s hold on the #1 seed in the NFC. The Titans have been very beatable against both the pass and the run.
I wanted to roll with Tannehill, given the total points line in this game and the Saints prowess against the run, but the Titans may be without both Adam Humphries and Chris Davis, so the lack of weapons scared me off. Brees’ EO this week is 24 with a GPI of 18.63. He should be a pretty safe play this week.
Drew Lock (DK-$5,900)
Lock is our discount play this week. He’s facing the weak Lions secondary at home this week. Lock’s EO is 20 points. His GPI is only 15.93. If you want to play Saquan or possibly some other stud running back or whatever, Lock is the guy to help make it happen and he’s got an especially juicy matchup this week to ensure he’s a relatively safe play. Feel free to stack him with Cortland Sutton and even Noah Fant if you want to get some heavy hitters elsewhere.
Saquan Barkley (DK-$8,300)
Saquan Barkley is coming off his first real monster game of the season. This week, he’s got a very beautiful matchup against a horrible rush defense who’s been destroyed on the ground recently. I think Barkley is an ideal play this week and he looks much healthier recently. Saquan’s EO this week is 24 points, and his GPI this week is 22.41. Not only is he in the positive, but he’s pretty safe regardless of the game script since he’s still useful in the pass game.
Joe Mixon (DK-$6,600)
Mixon has averaged roughly 23 points over his past three games. Two of those games were against top-end rushing defense as well. This week, Mixon gets the defense who ranks dead last against running backs. What’s not to like about this matchup? I’m frankly a little confused as to how cheap he is this week. At only $6,600, his GPI is 17.82 and his EO is 19.5 points. Mixon is in the green according to my metrics, so he should be a solid value play this week in a fantastic matchup.
Kenyan Drake (DK-$6,300)
Drake is coming off a career game of four touchdowns against the Cleveland Browns. The Browns were all about the charity last week and despite the game script being clearly in the favor of the Cardinals, Kenyan Drake still managed to have a 40+ point day. Drake has another favorable matchup this week against a middle of the road rushing defense. His GPI this week is 17 points with an EO of 20, so he’s a good bet to have another solid week this week and give you good value.
Keenan Allen (DK-$6,300)
Keenan Allen is a steady performer in a potent offense. He’s still the safety blanket for Phillip Rivers and his preferred target. Allen has been averaging around 7 receptions per game over his past 5 games, with no less than 68 yards in any of those games. Allen’s EO this week is 18 with a GPI of 17. He should be a solid floor with a high upside for the week.
Terry McLaurin (DK-$6,200)
Terry has been a serious contender for Rookie of the Year this season. He’s not gotten the volume one would hope for with Dwayne Haskins, but he is getting touchdowns in an offense that doesn’t get them frequently, so he’s worth a shot again this week in a great matchup against a poor secondary.
McLaurin’s EO this week is somehow only 16.5 but I have a lot of faith in Haskins this week in such a juicy matchup, the price might seem like a bargain by the time the week is over. This could be a game the Redskins trail for a good duration and their best deep threat is McLaurin, so I’m going with him this week as a homerun hitter.
Cortland Sutton (DK-$6,200)
Sutton is in the same ballpark projection as McLaurin this week. Both are projected 5 receptions for 75-yards and both are favorites to score a touchdown. I like Sutton this week because of both the weak matchup and the fact he doesn’t even need to be open to make an amazing play.
Just go watch the highlight of Sutton against the Browns, where the ball was thrown to Sutton with zero separation from Denzel Ward. Sutton simply wrapped his arms around Ward’s back to secure the ball for a touchdown. Sutton has two games of at least 74 yards receiving in the three games since Lock took over. I’m expecting another solid game this week from him.
Jacob Hollister (DK-$4,200)
Hollister is probably a boom/bust candidate for the week but it’s more than likely going to be a boom, since he’s facing the Arizona Cardinals, who give up the most fantasy points to tight-ends each week. There aren’t many good options this week at tight end, especially with the price range we’re looking at.
Hollister is facing a defense that gives up around 17 points per week to tight ends. It’s a risk, given Hollister’s lack of overall production in the offense, but Ricky-Seals Jones ended up with two touchdowns a week ago against the Cardinals, so I like Hollister this week.
Jonnu Smith (DK-$3,800)
Jonnu Smith can run. He may be one of the fastest tight ends in the league and we’ve seen flashes of his potential now for a few seasons. Last week was a productive one with Smith going for over 117 yards from scrimmage. The Titans likely will be throwing the ball a lot here, given the Saints stout rush defense and the likelihood the Titans will be in a negative game script.
Tannehill will also probably be without Adam Humphries this week and could also be without Chris Davis. That means it’s going to be Tajae Sharpe and AJ Brown as Tannehill’s only two dependable targets (note: Sharpe is far from dependable). I feel good about Smith getting an increased workload this week versus a weak Saints secondary.
Noah Fant (DK-$3,700)
Fant is a low-volume lottery ticket play. He’s only expected to receive between three to five targets this week, but he does the most with them among tight ends in the league. Fant is a play this week if you want to save some money in your budget and want a shot with a guy with a big upside. Play him with caution.
Steelers D (DK-$3,900)
The Jets are a tasty opponent for the Steelers this week. Every week, this defense makes big plays and keeps opposing offenses on edge with their ability to flip games in an instant. This week, the Steelers will be on the road facing a Jets team that has been more than charitable in various matchups this season. If the Steelers can pressure Darnold, there’s a good chance we could see some big returns in this investment on Sunday.
Broncos D (DK-$3,500)
My favorite play this week is the Broncos D against the Lions. Over the past three weeks, no quarterbacks has a lower passer rating than David Blough. Now, Blough will be travelling to Denver to face a defense who has been opportunistic and potent. The Broncos are coming off a rough road loss at Kansas City and will be eager to bounce back this week. I love their chances this week against a weak, suspect offense.
Colts D (DK-$3,300)
The Colts played their worst game of the year last week. Nothing about the game was encouraging to fans. This week, they’ll be up against a Panthers team who hasn’t won a game in a few months. The Panthers are also rolling out a rookie quarterback on his first start of the season, Will Grier.
Grier looked especially bad in the pre-season. I know we don’t know a lot about him of late, but I can’t imagine he’s going to do much against a Colts defense who has been relatively good throughout the course of the season.
DeAndre Washington (DK-$4,000)
Washington came in and had over 90 total yards in relief of Josh Jacobs two weeks ago. With Jacobs sitting out this game as well, Washington will have a clear path against the league’s 22nd ranked defense. He offers appeal in the passing game as well, so he shouldn’t be schemed out of the game at any point. At the very least, Washington should be a decent floor play this week with touchdown upside.
Austin Ekeler (DK-$6,100)
Ekeler is favored to have over 95 total yards and a touchdown this week (-125 odds). His EO this week is 17 points over a GPI of just 16.5. I think Ekeler is a dynamic threat the Raiders are really going to struggle within the passing game. It only took him 12 touches to have over 213 yards and two touchdowns just two weeks ago. I think the Chargers will wise-up and go back to him again this week.
Michael Gallup (DK-$5,500)
Gallup may be my favorite play this week if Dak plays. He’s rocking an EO of 15 points this week over a GPI of 14.85, so he’s in the green, but I’m more optimistic he has a really big game, due to the matchup against a truly weak Eagles secondary. He’s also likely going to be one of the best number two receiver the Eagles have faced this season and with Amari Cooper clearly not 100% and the Eagles rush defense honed in on Zeke, Gallup should be the release valve for the Cowboys this week.
Phillip Lindsay (DK-$5,300)
Here we go again with Phillip Lindsay. I swore I wouldn’t go back to him, but I’m a numbers guy and his matchup is simply too tasty this week. Lindsay’s EO this week is around 16 points over a GPI of 14.31. He’s simply offering too much upside in such a weak matchup.
At the very least this week, he’s got a high floor in a plus matchup that should turn into a positive game script. He’s also greatly out-snapped Royce Freeman in recent weeks, so it’s clear the coaching staff wants to feature Lindsay in the offense.
Collin is a former Army Intelligence and Logistics officer who got a little too into Football analysis. Since leaving the Army, he’s practically the Jack Ryan of football analysts. But he spends most of his days with his wife and two daughters, so he is clearly a better father than Jack Ryan.
Follow Collin on Twitter @CollinHulbert