Week 14 was an absolute disaster. It was the worst performance of my DFS career by a lot. It was 15 points worse than my previous worst week of all time. We scored 102 and 99 in our lineups.
Of all the Fflex plays, we seemed to play the wrong ones. Players got hurt, other players flat out sucked, and about everything that could’ve gone wrong did go wrong. Regression crushed us and knocked our 2019 average down from 151 to 147.
To be honest, it was a good thing in a way because as an analyst, you have to be humbled every once in a while, so you don’t get too cute with picks, like what happened last week. Regardless, we are still almost 15 points above the average cash line in 11-person 50/50 contests on DraftKings.
DraftKings Lineup Scores for our 2019 season
Week 1: 168
Week 2: 146
Week 3: 185 & 158
Week 4: 142 & 127
Week 5: 182 & 162
Week 6: 160 & 110
Week 7: 146 & 85
Week 8: 162 & 136
Week 9: 201 & 172
>Week 10: 176 & 134
Week 11: 160 & 137
Week 12: 161 & 127
Week 13: 165 & 124
Week 14: 102 & 99
Yearly average: 147.19
Avg 50/50 cash in DraftKings: 132.76
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Week 15 Preview
This week, we will be stacking the Bucs and Browns, mixing Jimmy Garoppolo with Deandre Hopkins. I’m also keeping Deshaun Watson in my pocket as an emergency play if OBJ or Landry is ruled out Sunday, or if Jameis is out. If that happens, I’ll be playing Watson and stacking Hopkins with him. My favorite play this week is probably the Bucs. I like the Baker to Landry connection and feel like both the Browns and the Bucs are the best stack pairings this week.
A few weeks back, we rode this Browns combo to a nice cash and this week, Baker is a very good bet against the league’s worst passing defense. Jimmy Garoppolo has been a revelation of late too. The Falcons are especially bad against quarterbacks and shockingly decent against running backs, so I like Jimmy here as well. The Falcons just lost one of their best corners for the season, so if Kyle Shanahan does what we expect him to do by exploiting mismatches, this should be a great day for the duo. The expensive option for this week is Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins. They’re in a tight spread against a divisional opponent, but it’s a 50 point over/under and the Titans have the 23rd ranked pass defense, so it seems like a safe bet.
As it is set every week, the prices on DraftKings are listed next to every player in parentheses.
|Colin's Picks For Week 15 of 2019 NFL Season|
|QB||Jameis Winston (DK-$6,900)||Baker Mayfield (DK-$6,400)||Jimmy Garoppolo (DK-$6,100)|
|RB||Leonard Fournette (DK-$7,600)||Chris Carson (DK-$7,500)||Aaron Jones (DK-$7,300)|
|WR||DeAndre Hopkins (DK-$8,000)||Chris Godwin (DK-$7,700)||Jarvis Landry (DK-$6,700)|
|TE||Zach Ertz (DK-$6,000)||Darren Waller (DK-$5,500)||Tyler Higbee (DK-$3,900)|
|Defense||Patriots D (DK-$4,000)||Seahawks D (DK-$3,700)||Browns D (DK-$3,300)|
|Flex||Raheem Mostert (DK-$5,200)||Allen Hurns (DK-$4,700)||Darrius Slayton (DK-$4,700)
|Dede Westbrook (DK-$4,600)||Chris Conley (DK-$3,600)|
Jameis Winston (DK-$6,900)
As long as he’s healthy Sunday, I’m all aboard the Winston express in a dome game against one of the league’s worst pass defenses. If he isn’t a go, roll with Deshaun Watson. His expected output (EO) is 28 fantasy points (330 passing, 2.75 TDs, 20 rushing yards). The Good Performance Index (GPI), as we use each week, has his line at 18.6. Seeing as how he’s almost 10 points over his GPI, you have to feel good about Winston this week in a game that should be plenty to get you in position for a comfortable DFS day.
Baker Mayfield (DK-$6,400)
Mayfield is the trust play of the week. A few weeks back, he helped us to a nice cash day and despite a rough 2019 season (15 TDs and 16 INTs), he’s poised for a big day, facing the league’s worst pass defense. There’s doubt as to whether OBJ and Landry will play this week (Landry looks more likely to play). If they do play, I love Baker this week.
The Cardinals are dead last against the pass and the weather looks very favorable this weekend for a lot of scoring. This may also be a good game script to chase, seeing as how Kyler Murray has the capacity to keep pace in this game. Baker’s EO this week is 22 points over a GPI of 17.3. Perhaps the most attractive part of starting him is his target hog, Jarvis Landry. Baker’s upside will be even more appealing when stacked alongside Landry.
Jimmy Garoppolo (DK-$6,100)
Jimmy G is hot right now. Over his last six games, Jimmy has 16 touchdowns and just four interceptions. He’s facing the Falcons this week, down their top corner, and sporting a moderate rush defense. The Falcons are also garbage in the secondary and have a pressure rate of just 19%, which is third-worst in the NFL.
Garoppolo is substantially better when he isn’t pressured and the assumption here is, the 49ers are so good at rushing, the Falcons will have to commit to stopping the run first. Jimmy’s EO this week is 23 points with a GPI of 16.5. Because of his plethora of targets, I would recommend another heavy target to pair with him in a point-friendly matchup, like DeAndre Hopkins.
Leonard Fournette (DK-$7,600)
Leonard Fournette was a mistake a week ago. It’s true the Chargers rushing defense hasn’t been great all year, but that team has looked very different since the return of Derwin James. Fournette was also game scripted out of the Chargers game, so an appearance against a bottom level defense looks to be the elixir he needs this week.
He also stated this week he’d like to score five touchdowns this Sunday, so I think he’s itching to find the end zone again. Fournette’s EO this week is a whopping 24 points. His EO is actually better than Dalvin Cook’s this week at just 23. Dalvin’s GPI line is just 20.5 this week, so he offers great value for the cost here.
Chris Carson (DK-$7,500)
Enough is enough with the Phillip Lindsay recommendations, right? Well, he’s out this week for me, as well as the rest of the season from what I can tell. Chris Carson has the best matchup and situation of any running back this week. Carson’s backfield mate, Rashaad Penny, was close to splitting full carries until last week’s injury.
With Penny out of the way, he’s got the green light this week in a magical matchup versus the Panthers. Carolina is dead last in rush defense. The game script is trending towards a possible 25 touches on the day for Carson, so now is a good time to give him a go this week. Carson’s EO this week is 21.5. His GPI is 20.5, so expect positive value for the former seventh-round draft pick on Sunday.
Aaron Jones (DK-$7,300)
I’m done falling for the Aaron Rodgers traps. Jones has become more predictable of late, due to some startling discoveries. Unless Jones is in a negative game script, or it’s a bad rushing matchup, Jones should do damage. This weekend looks pretty straightforward for Jones.
I can’t imagine the run-happy Matt Lafleur won’t gear his gameplan towards exploiting this weak Bears rush defense. He will do anything in his power to keep the game from being won on Aaron Rodgers’ arm. Expect Lafleur to attack the Bears early and often on the ground Sunday. I like Jones to get plenty of touches this week in a sub-freezing tundra. Jones’ EO this week is 21 points and his GPI is 19.7. Jones should be another positive value play again this week.
DeAndre Hopkins (DK-$8,000)
DeAndre Hopkins has a GPI this week of 21.6 with a great matchup against a Titans secondary, who have been shredded by opposing receivers this season. His projected stats are 92 yards receiving on seven receptions and a touchdown. That puts him at an EO of 22.2 this week. I’m expecting a lot of action with Hopkins in what is the highest projected point total for a game all week. I’ll be rostering him with Jimmy Garoppolo in my second lineup.
Chris Godwin (DK-$7,700)
Godwin has both a great matchup this week and he has a lack of weapons surrounding him in the offense. The loss of Mike Evans should mean we no longer have to play the guessing game between himself and Evans. It also means he should get a big boost in targets. His EO this week is 25.5 over a GPI line of 20.8. I’m stacking Godwin this week with Winston in a very generous matchup.
Jarvis Landry (DK-$6,700)
Like Chris Godwin, Jarvis Landry may not be competing too much for targets this week. The Browns might be without OBJ and even if he’s in, I love the Landry matchup against the league’s worst secondary. Landry’s EO this week is 19, which is a full point above his GPI. Sure, his ceiling may not be extremely high, but his floor should be, given the matchup. I’m stacking Landry with Baker and because of the ineptitude of the Cardinals, I feel very good about it this week.
Zach Ertz (DK-$6,000)
Has there been a tight end with a higher target share over the past two weeks? The answer is simply, no. Ertz has been THE go-to guy on offense lately and the other options aren’t getting any healthier, so I expect he’s in for another good week this week. The matchup is very favorable, as the Redskins have been the 18th best team against opposing tight ends. Ertz’s EO this week is 20 with a GPI of 16.2. I’ve got Ertz as a very safe play this week in a game he should get a large bounty of throws his way.
Darren Waller (DK-$5,500)
Darren Waller has averaged 16 points over the past two weeks. Ever since Hunter Renfrow went down a few weeks back with a rib injury, Waller has resumed his large target share. With Renfrow again out this week, Waller should continue his feasting on opposing defenses with a solid matchup against one of the weakest defenses in the NFL over the past month or so. Waller’s EO is 15.5 points this week and his GPI is just 14.85.
Tyler Higbee (DK-$3,900)
Tyler Higbee should be classified as the “risky” play this week, but he’s coming off back-to-back 100-yard performances. After the loss of Gerald Everett to injury, Higbee has emerged as a major weapon in this offense, which has recently undergone a philosophy change. A few weeks back, the Rams decided to do something about their bad pass blocking by moving from 11 personnel packages to 12 personnel packages.
The addition of another tight end has not only aided in pass protection for one of the league’s worst quarterbacks under pressure, but it has also opened up the snap count and route count for Tyler Higbee. Higbee’s EO this week is 13.5 points and his GPI is a low 10.5, so the expectation here is that Higbee will end up as the best value play at the position this week. I’ve got him slotted in every lineup this week, whether it be a tight end or flex.
Patriots D (DK-$4,000)
The Patriots are playing the Bengals this week. It’s true the Bengals aren’t as bad as they were earlier in the season. It’s also true the Patriots and the same dominant team we saw early in the season. The spread here is 9, so there’s a strong feeling the Patriots should handle the Bengals in a relatively low-scoring game. I expect the Patriots to tally quite a few sacks and give great value for the Patriots in your lineup.
Seahawks D (DK-$3,700)
The Seahawks are playing against a team that has struggled to protect both the quarterback and the ball. Over the past four games, Kyle Allen has just six touchdowns and nine turnovers. The Seahawks have playmakers on defense and though we don’t anticipate the Seahawks shutting down the Panthers, I do expect they’ll force a few turnovers and tally a few sacks.
Browns D (DK-$3,300)
The Browns are a safe bet this week. Like the Seahawks, the Browns are facing a quarterback who has struggled lately. Kyler Murray has just two touchdowns and four interceptions over his past two games. He’s also been subjected to heavy pressure and incurred a large number of sacks this season. The Browns should be a safe play this week with playmaking upside in the secondary.
Raheem Mostert (DK-$5,200)
Mostert is an interesting play this week. Mostert’s EO this week is 13 points. It’s especially low if you take into consideration the fact the 49ers coach, Kyle Shanahan, said Mostert has given them no choice but to play him on more snaps. I believe Shanahan will give Mostert more touches this week.
The oddsmakers don’t believe him, though. Mostert’s expected rushing yardage is actually lower than Matt Breida’s. The oddsmakers only have history to go off here, and the history says the 49ers run a committee of backs. Oddsmakers are also convinced the return of Breida to the lineup now means he will assume lead duties like he once had, prior to the injury. I’m optimistic this week for Mostert to be the lead back against an opponent who has given up a rushing score in each of their past three games.
Allen Hurns (DK-$4,700)
Hurns should be a good play this week. The Giants are third-worst against receivers in the slot, so Hurns should get some quality looks this week in a game with a high total points line. Regardless of whether Davante Parker sits, I think Hurns should get a good amount of targets. Hurns should at the very least, have a high floor for his price.
Darrius Slayton (DK-$4,700)
Slayton is coming off his biggest week of the season (5 for 154 and 2 TDs). He was the big play receiver last week, cashing in big on two deep balls (one on a mixup in coverage). This week, Slayton will have a great matchup against the Dolphins and their poor secondary. The Dolphins have been getting killed by opposing top receivers, ever since Xavien Howard went down with an injury early in the season. Slayton’s line this 60 yards and five receptions with a 40% chance of getting a touchdown. That equates to 13 points this week. His GPI is 12.7 so he’s a plus play this week.
Dede Westbrook (DK-$4,600)
Westbrook has a great matchup this week against a very bad Raiders secondary. Westbrook and Conley should both get more targets each week since DJ Chark has been ruled out of the contest. Westbrook’s EO this week is 14 points, so he’s the best value among all the FLEX listed options you can fill in at receiver.
Chris Conley (DK-$3,600)
Conley’s EO is 12.5 this week without DJ Chark in the contest. It’s a friendly matchup and one that should result in a few deep shots to Conley. He’s an extremely cheap option this week and the perfect flex or receiver slot option if you want to buy up elsewhere or run a tournament lineup and want to take a shot at big points.
Collin is a former Army Intelligence and Logistics officer who got a little too into Football analysis. Since leaving the Army, he’s practically the Jack Ryan of football analysts. But he spends most of his days with his wife and two daughters, so he is clearly a better father than Jack Ryan.
Follow Collin on Twitter @CollinHulbert