Week 14 DraftKings NFL DFS Picks And Analysis

Week 14 DFS NFL

Week 13 turned into a cash for both lineups again. We scored 165 in an 11-person, 50/50 contest with a cash line of 129 for our Packers stack lineup. For the Rams stack, we scored just 124 but the cash line was only 114. Why such a low cash line?

Well, that’s simple. A few people in both contests went with Kyler Murray, Nick Foles, and Sam Darnold in cheap stack attempts and many had Christian McCaffrey in those lineups, eating a chunk of their budget for little return. Last week, I stated I was going with Rodgers and Adams for my top lineup stack and it carried us to a first-place finish in that 11-person contest. I went with the Rams stack in lineup #2 and offered Nick Foles and other Jaguars as a replacement option, so I hope you trusted the process with Goff, like I did.

When I give you my picks each week, I want you to know, it’s wisest to pick 11-person 50/50s. Sure, there’s more volatility, but it’s much better to be in a contest with fewer teams, rather than being in a contest with 1,000 people, where 300 other teams could have lineups closely resembling yours. For variance purposes, always go with the smallest contest sizes you can find.

DraftKings Lineup Scores for our 2019 season:

Week 1: 168
Week 2: 146
Week 3: 185 & 158
Week 4: 142 & 127
Week 5: 182 & 162
Week 6: 160 & 110
Week 7: 146 & 85
Week 8: 162 & 136
Week 9: 201 & 172
Week 10: 176 & 134
Week 11: 160 & 137
Week 12: 161 & 127
Week 13: 165 & 124

Yearly average: 151.08
Avg 50/50 cash in DraftKings: 133.45

Week 14 Preview

This week, we will be stacking some Colts and Dolphins. If the weather is good in the Jets and Dolphins game, I’ll be starting the Dolphins stack in my second lineup. Otherwise, I’ll be starting Lamar Jackson and a flurry of cheap fills. The Colts are my primary option and if you’re wondering why the explanation is the same for both the Dolphins and Colts stacks. Both these offenses have very difficult rushing matchups this week.

Marlon Mack is banged up and now faces the league’s top rush defense. The Dolphins don’t have a good or even decent rushing game, so Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jacoby Brissett are going to be forced to throw throughout the duration of these games. Both teams are also underdogs, so if the game gets away from them early on, we could easily see a lot of garbage time points. Both the Colts and Dolphins have appealing stacking options, which should give us great value when filling in the rest of the rosters.

As it is set every week, the prices on DraftKings are listed next to every player in parentheses.

Colin's Picks For Week 14of 2019 NFL Season
QBLamar Jackson (DK-$7,400) Jacoby Brissett (DK-$6,100) Ryan Fitzpatrick (DK-$6,000)
RBLeonard Fournette (DK-$7,800) Phillip Lindsay (DK-$5,300)Jonathan Williams (DK-$5,300)
WRDavante Adams (DK-$7,000)DJ Chark (DK-$6,600) James White (DK-$5,300)
TEDarren Waller (DK-$5,800) Jack Doyle (DK-$4,600) Mike Gesicki (DK-$4,000)
DefenseChargers D (DK-$2,800)Titans D (DK-$2,600)
FlexKeenan Allen (DK-$6,600) Zach Paschal (DK-$5,500)Robby Anderson (DK-$5,100)

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson (DK-$7,400)

I understand this isn’t a great matchup on paper for Lamar Jackson. A lot of people are going to pivot from him this week. However, there’s so much more of an appeal with Jackson this week than we realize just by looking at the rankings. The Bills are among the worst teams in the league against the run. Over the past few weeks, teams have had success against the Bills in the air as well, so much of the Bills rankings can be attributed to their multiple games against the Dolphins, Jets, Redskins, and other inept passing offenses.

Jackson should be another solid play again this week because his floor is just so high with his rushing ability. His rushing line is 85 yards, while his passing line is 200 yards and 2 passing touchdowns. 24.5 points is his EO (Expected Output), which is about five points higher than the GPI (Good Performance Index) line.

Jacoby Brissett (DK-$6,100)

Jacoby Brissett hasn’t broken 18 fantasy points since Week 7. It’s been ugly. Keep in mind, DFS is all about matchups and making the smart play, based on matchups. This is more about his cheap stacking options than solely Jacoby. It’s also not just about having cheap options to plug and play, it’s about the fact the game script and matchup should result in his stacking options getting a high volume of targets. Brissett’s line this week is 240 yards passing, 15 yards rushing, and 2.25 touchdowns passing. That equates to an EO of 20 points. That’s about three points above his GPI line.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (DK-$6,000)

Like Brissett, Fitzpatrick is more than just a cheap QB play. He’s got an appeal for a stack due to the high volume his stacking options should get, combined with the implied game script against a team with a solid rushing defense. Fitz’s line this week is 275 yards passing, so he’s close to the range for the two point bonus for 300 yards. He’s also projected 15 rushing yards and 2.25 passing touchdowns.

Among all three quarterbacks on the slate this week, Fitzpatrick’s EO (21.5) is the highest percent above his GPI line (15.4), so you’re getting the best value from him, according to the oddsmakers. If the Weather is good, I’ll use Fitzpatrick in my primary DFS lineup.

Running Backs

Leonard Fournette (DK-$7,800)

Fournette is averaging 9 receptions and 27.5 points over the past two games. Sure, it’s a small sample size, but for his price this week, combined with the matchup, Fournette looks like he’s going to be a steal. The Chargers defense hasn’t been great, and there’s a good chance the Jaguars won’t find a lot of success passing downfield, especially considering the return of Derwin James to the secondary.

Fournette looks like he’s going to be the workhorse back yet again this week. His line is 130 total yards and 6.5 receptions. Without even a touchdown, that’s a 19.5 EO. His GPI is 21.06, so if he finds the end zone even once, he’ll be over four points above the GPI.

Phillip Lindsay (DK-$5,300)

I’ve recommended Lindsay a lot this season and he’s disappointed in almost every game. The thing is, he’s not killing your lineup with 9 points when he only costs $5,000. A lot of times, you need to fill in your lineup with guys at the running back position and it’s hard to find someone who will produce when they cost less than $6,000. The question you have to ask yourself is, do you want a high-upside risk with someone like Lindsay or would you rather go down the road of taking another back who splits carries and has a much lower floor?

Like I said, Lindsay typically won’t hurt your lineup much. He’s a filler with upside and this week, he should be able to piece together another decent game. His line this week is 95 total yards and 3.5 receptions. That’s a 13 point EO over a GPI line of 14.31. Lindsay is an explosive back and he’s very capable of breaking a long run or taking a screen the distance. To me, he’s a ticking time bomb of DFS value and I’m taking a chance on him this week.

James White (DK-$5,300)

Since Week 6, the Chiefs have allowed more receiving yards (478) to opposing running backs (Credit to the Fantasy Footballs). White could have a very big role in the offense if the Pats get behind, so he’s not the safest play, but this should be a close game, so I expect he should get a decent amount of action. White’s line this week is 80 yards and 6.5 receptions, so that’s an EO of 14.5 points over a GPI line of 14.85. If White finds the end zone, this play should end up being a home run. Even without a touchdown, White should be a pretty solid play this week.

Wide Receivers

DJ Moore (DK-$7,000)

DJ Moore has been absolutely killing it lately. He’s had at least 17.5 points in each of his past five games. He’s the hottest receiver in the league right now and he’s got another strong matchup this week against the Falcons. His line this week is 91 yards and 7.5 receptions. With an EO of 16.5, he’s not a tremendous value this week, but he’s still the second most likely player on the offense to find the end zone, so you have to factor that when comparing his EO of 16.5 to his GPI of 18.9

DeVante Parker (DK-$6,900)

Parker’s line this week is six receptions and 90 yards. That means there’s a good chance we could see him hit the bonus for 100 yards. It also means his EO this week is 15 points, not factoring touchdowns. With a GPI line of 18.63. Sure, it’s not optimal, but when you consider Fitzpatrick’s line is two touchdowns and Parker and Gesicki are his favorite targets, there are good odds for at least one of them finding the end zone.

James Washington (DK-$6,000)

Washington isn’t a high floor guy by any means, but the matchup this week should give him both a high floor and a high ceiling. Over his past four games, Washington has eclipsed 18 fantasy points three times. This week, he’s facing the worst pass defense in football and there’s currently no line for James as the weekend approaches. From a situational standpoint, he’s the best option in the league this week.

The question will be, “Will Devlin Hodges be given the green light to attack this defense this week”? I’m only running with Washington if the line is good enough so follow my Twitter handle Sunday morning.

Tight Ends

Darren Waller (DK-$5,800)

Waller went for 100 yards on seven receptions last week against the Chiefs. It’s become quite clear the loss of Renfrow has meant an uptick in usage for Waller. This week, Waller will face the 21st ranked defense against opposing tight ends. His line is 7 receptions and 74 yards, so for his price, an EO of 14.4 over a GPI line of 15.6.

Jack Doyle (DK-$4,600)

It was evident that the departure of Eric Ebron resulted in a huge increase in targets and production for Jack Doyle. Doyle had six receptions for 73 yards and a touchdown last week on 11 targets, a season high. Parris Campbell returns to the lineup this week, but even so, Doyle should remain a target hog this week in which he’s projected for 55 yards and 6.5 receptions. His EO of 12 points is nearly as strong as his 12.46 GPI, so if Doyle should find the end zone again, it’s going to be a solid week.

Mike Gesicki (DK-$4,000)

Gesicki’s line this week is 50 yards on 4.5 receptions. It’s not an especially high line but given the estimated passing yardage from Fitzpatrick this week at 275 yards, it can’t all go to Devante Parker. Gesicki is carving out a productive role in this offense and a shortage of options means he should receive a large share of targets again this week. His EO is 9.5 points with a GPI line of 10.8. I like Gesicki this week as not only a tight end option, but a Flex option as well.

Defense

Chargers D (DK-$2,800)

The Chargers got off to a very sluggish start last week before coming on strong in the second half. If they can settle in this week at Jacksonville, I love their chances to force a few sacks and possible turnovers in this game. Even if they fail to do that, you shouldn’t have to worry too much about Gardner Minshew shredding the Chargers.

Titans D (DK-$2,600)

The Titans are my go-to play this week. With the team traveling to Oakland to play the Raiders, they’re playing outstanding football as of late and the Raiders have been the opposite. Two weeks ago, the Raiders were trounced by the Jets. Last week, the Raiders were humiliated by the Chiefs. If anything, the Titans shouldn’t be a bad play this week.

Flex

Keenan Allen (DK-$6,600)

Allen’s line this week is 77 yards and seven receptions. The Jaguars haven’t been able to do much against anyone on defense this year. As of late, the Jaguars have been absolutely crushed by the opposition. Allen has done well to get more involved recently, so I think he could be in for another solid day in this one, with an EO of nearly 15 points and a GPI of 17.82. I like his odds to find the end zone this week.

Zach Paschal (DK-$5,500)

Paschal has no line this week, but he does have a very promising match up against a very vulnerable Bucs pass defense. Paschal is coming off a 20 point week and should get a similar target share on Sunday as the Bucs elite rush defense should result in a bump in his targets once again.

Robby Anderson (DK-$5,100)

Anderson is a solid, cheap plug and play this week. He’s got a line of just 4.5 receptions and 60 yards, but he’s $5,100 on DraftKings, so he’s a potentially huge boom/bust candidate this week if you need an inexpensive fill in your lineup. He’s also a solid dart throw for a tournament play.

Collin is a former Army Intelligence and Logistics officer who got a little too into Football analysis. Since leaving the Army, he’s practically the Jack Ryan of football analysts. But he spends most of his days with his wife and two daughters, so he is clearly a better father than Jack Ryan.

Follow Collin on Twitter @CollinHulbert

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