Week 12 was a winner in both lineups (161 & 127), despite a low score in the second lineup. Luckily, the cash lines for the 50/50s I entered were just 120 and 121. Matt Ryan laid an egg for the second lineup, but Russell Gage and Calvin Ridley combined for 38, so that really helped. Derrick Henry was a beast, with 32 points. Allen Robinson led our receivers with 28. Zach Ertz’ 27 points carried quite the load. Baker Mayfield led our top roster (28), stacked with OBJ (20). Jaylen Samuels was a bust, along with Phillip Lindsay, Vance McDonald, DJ Chark, and Jamison Crowder.
I swapped Crowder out, due to the weather situation in New Jersey, so he didn’t cost me in the main lineups. DFS scores were low across most contests, due to the weather, combined with some completely inexplicable performances by some high dollar players out there. Regardless, we cashed in both lineups, so it was a great week.
DraftKings Lineup Scores for our 2019 season
Week 1: 168
Week 2: 146
Week 3: 185 & 158
Week 4: 142 & 127
Week 5: 182 & 162
Week 6: 160 & 110
Week 7: 146 & 85
Week 8: 162 & 136
Week 9: 201 & 172
Week 10: 176 & 134
Week 11: 160 & 137
Week 12: 161 & 127
Yearly average: 151.68
Avg 50/50 cash in DraftKings: 134.54
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Week 13 preview
This week, we are going stacking some Packers, Jaguars and Rams. I’m offering a 3rd lineup for an alternative play, in case you can’t stomach the idea of playing Jared Goff. Sure, I get it. Goff and Rodgers both coming off abysmal performances against quality opponents. Both teams looked not only inept; they were downright terrible. However, DFS is about matchups. The winds of change move quickly in the NFL. Momentum only exists in certain areas of the NFL. It doesn’t hold true in many cases, this included. If you don’t want to take a ride on the Rams train, stack Foles with DJ Chark in a glorious matchup this week and you should be just fine. I’ll go fast on the Flex options, so you have plenty of player combinations to use.
As it is set every week, the prices on DraftKings are listed next to every player in parentheses.
|Colin's Picks For Week 13 of 2019 NFL Season|
|QB||Aaron Rodgers (DK-$6,500)||Jared Goff (DK-$6,000)||Nick Foles (DK-$5,700)|
|RB||Christian McCaffrey (DK-$10,500)||Le’Veon Bell (DK-$7,200)||Jonathan Williams (DK-$5,300)|
|WR||Davante Adams (DK-$7,000)||DJ Chark (DK-$6,600)||Robert Woods (DK-$5,500)|
|TE||Zach Ertz (DK-$6,700)||Darren Waller (DK-$5,500)||Jack Doyle (DK-$3,300)|
|Defense||Chargers D (DK-$3,100)||Eagles D (DK-$3,600)||Browns D (DK-$2,600)|
|Flex||Miles Sanders (DK-$5,400)||Cooper Kupp (DK-$7,100)||Jamaal Williams (DK-$4,500)
|Dede Westbrook (DK-$5,000)||Phillip Lindsay (DK-$5,000)||Josh Jacobs (DK-$6,900)|
Aaron Rodgers (DK-$6,500)
Aaron Rodgers is a strong candidate for “Most unexpected top player of the week.” He’s coming off a bad game with just 104 yards passing against the San Francisco 49ers. With two awful performances in his past three games, in games where his team was utterly destroyed, Rodgers may be a little more motivated to make some audibles at the line so he can get back to the solid approval rating he had coming into the season. In the past, we’ve seen Aaron Rodgers upset with play-calling and the next week, he takes matters into his own hands.
Rodgers is facing one of the league’s worst pass defenses this week, so I expect he’ll have a nice bounce-back game this week. Rodgers’ line this week is 280 yards and 2.5 touchdown passes.
Jared Goff (DK-$6,000)
Jared Goff has zero touchdowns and five interceptions over the past month. That’s really bad, but not as surprising given his low passer rating under pressure, paired with the fact he’s faced three solid pass rushes and secondaries in that span.
Despite his struggles, that offense is getting healthy and Goff shouldn’t be facing the pass rush he’s faced over the last month. I think Goff will have a big day and end his touchdown drought in a big way. Goff’s line this week is 290 yards passing and 2.25 touchdown passes.
Nick Foles (DK-$5,700)
Foles has a line of 296 and 2.5 touchdowns this week. It’s an ideal scenario for Foles. The Bucs have the league’s best rushing defense and the worst passing defense, so the game script is going to be very straightforward. I probably feel most comfortable about this stack than the others, especially considering the positive weather outlook (73-80 degrees at kickoff).
I like all three receivers (Chark, Westbrook, and Conley) in this game to stack (pick one). Configure your lineup based on how much you trust this lineup. With a cheap QB and WR options, this is a high-value stack that will allow you to spend up in other areas.
Christian McCaffrey (DK-$10,500)
McCaffrey is a beast every week. Only Week 2 was a disappointment. Every other week, this man puts up outstanding performances. He’s worth the price tag each week. Consistency in DFS is hard to come by and the cost of someone who get you 20+ points each week is going to be steep. McCaffrey’s line this week is 160 yards and he’s a favorite to score a touchdown.
Le’Veon Bell (DK-$7,200)
Bell has been very steady this season. He’s underperformed by most people’s standards, but his price has at least stayed relatively low. Bell’s line this week is 105 total yards and 5.5 receptions. That should put his total around 16, with a decent chance of scoring. Bell will be facing the league’s worst rushing defense this week, so I think if there was ever a time to expect the first monster game from Lev Bell in 2019, this would be the game.
Jonathan Williams (DK-$5,300)
Jonathan Williams appears to be the bell-cow in Indy now since Mack’s departure due to injury. Frank Reich trusted Williams to carry the ball. He touched the ball 30 times, which just reinforces the thought that he will be the main guy while Mack is out. Williams has a line of 65 yards rushing this week, after coming off back-to-back 100+ yard rushing weeks. It’s a conservative line, but I think the uncertainty is what can get us plus upside this week. If you need a cheap filler and like what you’ve seen from him so far, take him again this week in what should be another high-volume, good matchup.
Davante Adams (DK-$7,000)
Adams has a big line this week and should draw Janoris Jenkins in coverage. Jenkins has been eaten up by #1 receivers all year and this week should be no different. Rodgers should be itching to throw the ball, especially given the past few weeks, where he only exceeded 164 yards passing just once (in three games). Adams is around a line of 95 yards and 8 receptions, with touchdown odds around 50%.
His projected output is 20.5 points, above his GPI (Good Performance Index) of 19.5. I think it’s an ideal matchup and should be a strong performance for the undisputed top target in Aaron Rodgers’ arsenal.
DJ Chark (DK-$6,600)
Chark had a very disappointing week last week. He had a pretty good matchup but fell well short of his line of 80 yards. This week, Chark is poised for a bounce-back performance against the league’s second-worst pass defense. Chark’s target share could be even higher than normal, given the questionable status of Chris Conley, so expect Chark and Westbrook to get a bountiful workload this week. Chark’s line is 78 yards this week, but I expect him to easily exceed that. Stack him with Foles for a safe, cheap play this week. That combo should afford you some room to go with McCaffrey or Bell and still have room for more value to fill out the rest of your lineup.
Robert Woods (DK-$5,500)
Woods is a high upside play this week in a fantastic matchup against the league’s worst pass defense. He showed some signs of life in his return to the lineup last week in a tough matchup, so I can’t imagine a better buy-low candidate with a better opportunity this week. Woods has a high line of 70 yards this week, which is the best for anyone in that price range. Stack him with Goff to maximize value, or just plug him in a WR slot for great value.
Zach Ertz (DK-$6,700)
Zach Ertz has been on fire lately as the top target and receiving option in a depleted Eagles receiving corps. He’s reasonably priced this week but should be a solid play with upside as he’s been the only consistent weapon on this offense now for weeks. Ertz’s line is 77 yards this week, so he should have a very high and safe floor this week in a great matchup.
Darren Waller (DK-$5,500)
Waller’s dip in target shares correlates directly with the ascent of Hunter Renfrow. With Renfrow gone now due to a rib injury, it should mean a big boost to Waller’s targets. Waller’s line is only 65 yards, but it’s a reflection of his recent sub-par performances and shouldn’t be taken too seriously. I think the matchup is ideal and the game script should call for plenty of targets for him.
Jack Doyle (DK-$3,300)
Jack Doyle is a play conceived from the assumption that the Colts will have two major receiving targets out this week, so Doyle should see a considerable increase in targets. He’s been somewhere around sporadic, to promising over the past few seasons, but with no competition at tight end this week (Ebron out), combined with the loss of TY Hilton and the ineffectiveness of Paschal. Doyle doesn’t have a line this week, but his $3,300 price tag should offer a cheap play with upside.
Chargers D (DK-$3,100)
Derwin James is back this week. Drew Lock will also be making his debut for the Broncos. There’s a lot of appeal for starting the Chargers defense this week. The Broncos are coming off a putrid effort against Buffalo and now are going to have to face a defense who will be getting their best player back.
We forget how great this Chargers defense was a year ago, forcing turnovers and terrifying opposing secondaries. The Chargers will likely be stacking the box against the Broncos, which should limit the Broncos scoring ceiling. It’s a strong play for the price this week.
Eagles D (DK-$3,600)
This is the defense to have for the week. A matchup with the Dolphins is always a good bet, but it’s even more appealing given how the Eagles defense has played over the past four games in which they haven’t allowed more than 17 points in a game, even with offensive inconsistency. Normally, offenses who can’t stay on the field tend to wear out their defense by way of never giving them a break.
Somehow, the Eagles have had tremendous success on defense despite all this. This week’s matchup is enticing because the Eagles rush defense is so stout, and the Dolphins can’t run the ball, at all. That’s great because the Eagles should be able to focus solely on stopping the pass. Ryan Fitzpatrick is prone to turning the ball over, so I really like the Eagles this week.
Browns D (DK-$2,600)
The Browns are a safety net team this week. I don’t expect much from them, but the line in this game is just 40 points, so there’s a good chance the Browns won’t get burned too badly by the Steelers and their third-string QB making just his second start of the season. This is strictly a value play.
Miles Sanders (DK-$5,400)
I understand Jay Ajayi will likely get close to ten carries this game, but I expect the Eagles to attempt to branch out a bit on offense and try to get Sanders the ball in space more, as opposed to just giving him the ball and expecting he’s going to do something special with it.
He’s certainly shown flashes of brilliance this season but appears to be profiling himself more as a pass catching back, ideal for space, rather than a first and second down option. This week is as good a week as ever for him to have a big game.
Cooper Kupp (DK-$7,100)
Kupp has a great matchup. His struggling quarterback also has a great matchup. His line this week is a massive 95 yards. At his price, that should be tremendous value this week. The floor and ceiling are high for Kupp this week in this glorious matchup. He’s a good stacking option to pair with Goff if you’re okay with risking money on the guy.
Jamaal Williams (DK-$4,500)
Williams is the low-price, low-risk Swiss Army Knife option this week. His line is 4 receptions and 65 total yards. He has six touchdowns over the course of the season, so there’s about a 50% chance he will score, based off his season thus far. That puts his line at 13.5 points; a good return given the price.
Dede Westbrook (DK-$5,000)
Chris Conley is likely going to be hampered by a hamstring issue for this week, so the nearly 300 yards Nick Foles has been projected to throw this week has to go somewhere. The backs aren’t getting much, nor are the tight ends. This is a very wide receiver friendly game on both sides. Westbrook’s line is 62 yards. If Conley isn’t up for it, invest in Dede.
Phillip Lindsay (DK-$5,000)
Lindsay is going to be facing a healthy Chargers defense this week, but he’s got a nice line of 100 total yards and 3.5 receptions. Even without a touchdown, that’s still a 13.5 point expected output. GPI for Lindsay this week is 12.85, so he’s a wise investment for cheap. I’ll have Lindsay in multiple lineups.
Josh Jacobs (DK-$6,900)
Jacobs has a nice line of 110 yards this week and 2.5 receptions. That 13.5 line isn’t great, but he’s a solid candidate for 100 yards on the ground and has great odds to score a touchdown this week. That’s another 6 points off scoring bonuses for 100 yards and a touchdown. Jacobs may be a big risk this week, given the thought they could be trailing a large majority of this game. He could be a sensible alternative if this game stays close.
Collin is a former Army Intelligence and Logistics officer who got a little too into Football analysis. Since leaving the Army, he’s practically the Jack Ryan of football analysts. But he spends most of his days with his wife and two daughters, so he is clearly a better father than Jack Ryan.
Follow Collin on Twitter @CollinHulbert