Week 11 was a solid week overall, but I will regret choosing Drew Brees over Dak Prescott because it resulted in one lineup failing to cash by less than a point (.72).
Our second lineup was great, scoring 160 points and cruising to an easy DFS victory. The cash lines in both contests were 137.7 and 128.85. Deebo Samuel in both lineups was huge, but Tevin Coleman in both was a big disappointment. The rest of both lineups seemed to equal each other out, except for Calvin Ridley, who made the difference with over 31 points for lineup #2.
DraftKings Lineup Scores for our 2019 season
Week 1: 168
Week 2: 146
Week 3: 185 & 158
Week 4: 142 & 127
Week 5: 182 & 162
Week 6: 160 & 110
Week 7: 146 & 85
Week 8: 162 & 136
Week 9: 201 & 172
Week 10: 176 & 134
Week 11: 160 & 137
Yearly average: 152.4
Avg 50/50 cash in DraftKings: 136.6
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Week 12 Preview
This week, we are stacking Browns, Falcons, and Eagles players. I feel a little better about Baker Mayfield this week than I do Carson Wentz, just based on how he’s been playing lately, the opponent, and the plethora of weapons at his disposal. I like the Falcons a lot this week, but I’m moving towards Ridley over Julio since Julio hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 3. I’ll be using Ertz in my main lineup to pair with my Browns players, so Wentz will likely be the odd man out in both 50/50 lineups this week.
As it is set every week, the prices on DraftKings are listed next to every player in parentheses.
|Colin's Picks For Week 12 of 2019 NFL Season|
|QB||Matt Ryan (DK-$6,700)||Baker Mayfield (DK-$5,900)||Carson Wentz (DK-$5,600)|
|RB||Jaylen Samuels (DK-$7,200)||Derrick Henry (DK-$6,900)||Phillip Lindsay (DK-$5,200)|
|WR||DJ Chark (DK-$6,400)||Odell Beckham Jr (DK-$7,000)||Jamison Crowder (DK-$6,200)|
|TE||Zach Ertz (DK-$6,000)||Ryan Griffin (DK-$4,200)||Vance McDonald (DK-$3,500)|
|Defense||Falcons D (DK-$3,500)||Saints D (DK-$3,300)||Bengals D (DK-$2,100)|
|Flex||Miles Sanders (DK-$5,000)||Russell Gage (DK-$3,900)||Calvin Ridley (DK-$6,500)
|Allen Robinson (DK-$6,500)|
Matt Ryan (DK-$6,700)
Matt Ryan has a dream matchup this week. For one, he’s facing the worst passing defense, at home, indoors this week. Second, the Tampa Bay rush defense is the #3 ranked rush defense and Ryan is without his starting running back. This has all the makings of a big game for Ryan. The only thing to consider here is the shootout potential. This game has it, on paper. However, this game also could likely be a lot lower scoring than we think, due to the sudden potency of the Falcons defense.
Matt Ryan’s line this week is 330 passing yards and 2.75 passing touchdowns. That equates to roughly 24 fantasy points. Going off the expected cash calculation, based on the starting budget, the ideal multiplier line you want is 2.7 times the cost of the player. Ryan’s expected total of 24 points exceeds his “good performance” line to beat at 18.09 points ($6,700 x 2.7). Ryan looks like an especially solid play this week.
Baker Mayfield (DK-$5,900)
“Baker, Baker, touchdown maker” will be the rallying cry this week. It’s possible I’m wrong but my record this season speaks for itself, so I hope I didn’t jinx this. Baker has a very favorable matchup this week against a weak Dolphins secondary who ranks 26th against opposing quarterbacks. He’s long overdue for a really big game through the air, so this could be the week OBJ blows up and obliterates a weak defense. The Dolphins will be down a couple in the secondary this week as well.
Baker’s line is 280 yards passing and 2.75 touchdowns, so he is expected to surpass the “good performance” line of 15.93 with his expected total of 22.25. Start Baker, especially if you want to stack him with OBJ or Jarvis Landry.
Carson Wentz (DK-$5,600)
Wentz has a very low price tag this week and I can’t understand why. He has a favorable matchup against the 20th ranked (vs QBs) defense in the NFL. He’s going to be down Jordan Howard, so the likelihood the Eagles will attempt a lot of rushes inside the 10 isn’t great. Wentz should absolutely be stacked with his preferred target buddy, Zach Ertz. The game script here recognizes the Eagles as slight favorites, therefore the game script should translate well for Wentz continuing to pass throughout the game. Wentz’s line this week is 245 yards passing, 2.5 touchdowns, and 20 rushing yards. That equates to 22.5 points and exceeds the “Good performance” line of 15.12.
Jaylen Samuels (DK-$7,200)
Jaylen Samuels is about to have his biggest game of the year. I don’t think it’s that bold of a claim, given the fact he’s playing the league’s worst rush defense and the Steelers quarterback tossed four interceptions last week and is missing his two favorite deep options. There are SO MANY reasons to trust Samuels this week. Also, consider his floor this week. A few weeks ago, Samuels had a disappointing game from a production standpoint, but he had 13 receptions and it turned into a great performance by DraftKings scoring standards. Samuels’ line this week has not yet been released, but I can assure you, it’s going to exceed 100 yards. Fire him up in every lineup.
Derrick Henry (DK-$6,900)
Derrick Henry is on another late season berserker run. He’s coming off a bye and prior to that, he racked up 188 yards and two touchdowns against the Chiefs. Fresh off that 36 point DK performance and some rest, Henry is about to face the Jaguars, who rank 25th against opposing running backs and surrendered 264 yards against the Colts just a week ago. Henry’s line this week is 117 total yards. I’m shocked at how low his price is, especially given his near even odds to score a touchdown. I’m starting Henry in my main lineup this week and banking he’s going to exceed his expected totals and give us great return on his low price of just $6,900. Henry is expected to finish with 21 points, which is three more than his “Good performance” return of 18.
Phillip Lindsay (DK-$5,200)
Lindsay, again, has flown under the radar on multiple fantasy platforms. He’s priced at a modest $5,200 this week. Though he hasn’t done a lot lately, you have to like the matchup this week against Buffalo. The Bills are 20th against opposing running backs and Lindsay has gotten the great majority of touches in the backfield over the past few weeks. Lindsay’s targets have taken a hit over the past month as he has just 8 receptions over the past four games. All Lindsay needs is 15 points to qualify as a positive play in the GPI, so his line of 100 yards and 3.5 receptions indicates he should be close to those 15 points, even if he doesn’t find the end zone. He’s a good, cheap fill with a high ceiling this week.
DJ Chark (DK-$6,400)
Chark’s line this week is 80 yards. It’s nothing overwhelming, but it’s still high and Chark has clearly been Foles’ favorite target in the games he’s played this season. Chark is an affordable $6,400 this week and should be a safe play against a Titans secondary that is ranked 16th against opposing receivers. Start Chark this week if you want a cheap, solid fill at receiver.
Odell Beckham Jr (DK-$7,000)
Odell Beckham Jr has been a grand disappointment this season. He’s only had two games this season in which he was a cash-positive start, according to my GPI formula. This week, his price is relatively low, finally, and he’s got a matchup for the ages against a team that just allowed a career day to both John Brown and Josh Allen combo.
The Dolphins are down multiple players in their secondary and Beckham is about to explode with frustration, given he hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 2. Beckham’s line this week is 80 yards, so he’s going to need to find the end zone to cross into the positive on the GPI but I have faith. Stack him with Baker and enjoy your big day.
Jamison Crowder (DK-$6,200)
This may be the third or fourth week in a row I’ve picked Crowder as a receiving option. What can I say in defense of it? Well, he’s averaged 6 receptions, 80 yards, and one touchdown each week, in nearly identical game logs. The variance has been so low each of the past three weeks, he’s the been the safest play all season at receiver. His matchup this week is great as he will face a Raiders defense that ranks 30th against opposing receivers.
Crowder’s line this week is 65 yards, 6.5 receptions, and a 50% chance to score a touchdown. That’s a decent line given the price. Sure, his ceiling isn’t especially high, but he’s been targeted at such an insane rate this season by Sam Darnold, his ceiling may be a lot higher than we’ve seen.
Zach Ertz (DK-$6,000)
Zach Ertz was the preferred target of Carson Wentz a year ago. He had 9 receptions on a team-leading 11 targets. Ertz has a ridiculously soft matchup against the Seahawks, who are 26th against opposing tight ends (also, they didn’t even face Kittle a few weeks ago in the 49ers game). Ertz should again be the top target with Alshon Jeffrey being questionable. His line this week is 70 yards, 7.5 receptions, and a 40% chance to score, so his expected total should be somewhere around 18 DraftKings points.
Ryan Griffin (DK-$4,200)
Ryan Griffin is coming off a game against the Redskins in which he ripped up their secondary for 109 yards on five receptions and a touchdown. This week, he faces the 21st ranked team against tight ends and Griffin has big upside, given his four touchdowns in the past six games. He’s clearly demonstrated he can be a potent option for Sam Darnold, so I expect he’s going to get some chances this week, given the favorable conditions. Griffin’s line this week is 51 yards, 4.5 receptions, and a 25% chance to score. He’s got tremendous upside and should have a decent floor, given his solid depth of target.
Vance McDonald (DK-$3,500)
Vance McDonald will be the beneficiary of a lack of options among Steelers pass-catchers. Volume is critical in DFS, especially on DraftKings and McDonald should be in for a heavy workload this week. With downfield threats Dionte Johnson and Juju Smith-Schuster likely out, combined with Mason Rudolph’s horrible past week throwing downfield (4 INTs), the Steelers will likely be staying close to the line of scrimmage and should be reducing their depth of target this week as well.
That means there should be plenty of targets for both Samuels and McDonald. McDonald’s line this week is 46 yards and 4.5 receptions with about a 15% chance to get a touchdown. That equates to about 10 points on DraftKings, which is about 2.85 times the return on cost. That’s over the 2.75 line you need on return to cash.
Falcons D (DK-$3,500)
The Falcons gave head coach duties to Raheem Morris two weeks ago and the payoff has been huge. Not only did the Falcons shut down the Saints on the road, but they also trounced the Panthers on the road the following week, holding both opponents to a combined 12 points. This week, the Falcons face the Bucs, who serve up the 10th most fantasy points to opposing defenses. Jameis Winston leads the league in interceptions this season, so there’s a good chance the Falcons can keep it going this week against a turnover-happy opponent.
Saints D (DK-$3,300)
This one is simple. Kyle Allen has had an issue with fumbles this season. Last week, Allen had a big issue with interceptions. The Saints have also been a great offense this season, ranking 6th overall as a defense and +8 on turnover margin. The Panthers aren’t going to be able to lean on Christian McCaffrey all game this time around. I’m going Saints with a safe choice this week.
Bengals D (DK-$2,100)
Hear me out, okay? The Bengals haven’t been the best team this season. In fact, they’re probably the worst. However, they’re only 6.5 point underdogs at home this week against a Steelers team who just turned the ball over 5 times against the Browns last week. Mason Rudolph might not replicate his awful performance from a week ago, but he’s probably not going to be able to make you regret filling your roster with the Bengals defense this week.
Keep in mind, Rudolph’s top two air targets will be out this week as well. Also, the Bengals have covered the spread in well over half their games this season. Don’t expect too many positives from this unit this week, but also don’t expect many negatives.
Miles Sanders (DK-$5,000)
Is this going to be the breakout we’ve dreamed about all season? It may be. There are whispers that Jay Ajayi will get 10 or so carries in this game, which obviously takes away from Sanders’ ceiling. However, the appeal here is Sanders’ floor as a pass-catcher. Once Howard is ruled out, Sanders’ line should be around 70 total yards and 4 receptions. It may not check the box in the “Good Performance Index” (GPI), but he’s a value play if you need a cheap fill at running back. Avoid starting him in your primary lineup if you can.
Russell Gage (DK-$3,900)
Russell Gage is the sneakiest play of the week. He had a touchdown called back last week but otherwise didn’t have a great game. The key here is the matchup. In the Matt Ryan writeup, we indicated Ryan’s line is at 330 yards and there’s no Austin Hooper. That means Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones, and ____ will account for roughly 300-315 yards. I think the mystery man poised to fill in the blanks on offense is Russell Gage this week against the league’s worst pass defense. He’s a really cheap value play this week and a strong candidate to get 5+ targets.
Calvin Ridley (DK-$6,500)
Calvin Ridley had a monster performance a week ago and we were at the forefront, offering him as a pick in DFS lineups. Ridley’s 31 points was the reason our main lineup cashed and could very well be the reason we cash again this week. Ridley has the matchup of all matchups this week as I just explained with Gage. His line this week is a whopping 75 yards, so the cheap price will be worth it.
Allen Robinson (DK-$6,500)
Robinson has a line of 70 yards and 6 receptions. Like Ridley, there’s tremendous projected value with their relatively low costs. Mitch Trubisky has been hot garbage for much of the season, but the Giants are the exact type of team who lets Bears fans fool themselves into believing Trubisky was worth the insane price the Bears paid for him.
Collin is a former Army Intelligence and Logistics officer who got a little too into Football analysis. Since leaving the Army, he’s practically the Jack Ryan of football analysts. But he spends most of his days with his wife and two daughters, so he is clearly a better father than Jack Ryan.
Follow Collin on Twitter @CollinHulbert