Week 11 DraftKings NFL DFS Picks And Analysis

DraftKings Week 11 Picks

Week 10 could’ve been blended a little better for me to cash in both, but it just didn’t work out and we only cashed in one of the two lineups. In the top lineup, we cashed in our first 50/50 with a 176 over a 138 cash line. Our second lineup failed to cash at 134 points over a surprising cash line of 146. Our average of 155 this week matches our yearly average, but the average cash line in 50/50s on DraftKings has gone up to 137 now, so the field is getting a little more competitive.

DraftKings Lineup Scores for our 2019 season

Week 1: 168
Week 2: 146
Week 3: 185 & 158
Week 4: 142 & 127
Week 5: 182 & 162
Week 6: 160 & 110
Week 7: 146 & 85
Week 8: 162 & 136
Week 9: 201 & 172
Week 10: 176 & 134

Yearly average: 155.6
Avg 50/50 cash in DraftKings: 137

Week 11 Preview

This week, we are stacking the Ravens and Saints. I know it didn’t work out last week with the Drew Brees and Michael Thomas stack, but Thomas still had a huge day. This week, the Bucs are even worse than the Falcons in pass defense. With how stout the Bucs rush defense is, I imagine the touchdowns will come through the air. The other stack, the Ravens, has a nice matchup against a team with a poor pass rush and poor pass defense. I’ve stacked Lamar Jackson with Mark Andrews this week, with the hopes the two can give us a nice combo meal to carry our roster.
As it is set every week, the prices on DraftKings are listed next to every player in parentheses.

Colin's Picks For Week 11of 2019 NFL Season
QBLamar Jackson (DK-$7,700) Drew Brees (DK-$6,900)Dak Prescott (DK-$6,700)
RBTevin Coleman (DK-$6,100) or Raheem Mostert (DK-$3,400) Josh Jacobs (DK-$6,900) Devin Singletary (DK-$6,000)
WRMichael Thomas (DK-$9,900) DeAndre Hopkins (DK-$8,100) DJ Moore (DK-$5,900)
TEMark Andrews (DK-$6,100) Greg Olsen (DK-$3,900) Noah Fant (DK-$3,700)
DefenseCowboys D (DK-$3,500)Raiders D (DK-$3,300)Jets D (DK-$3,100)
FlexBrian Hill (DK-$4,800)Calvin Ridley (DK-$5,500)Deebo Samuel (DK-$4,000)

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson (DK-$7,700)

Lamar Jackson has been absolutely shredding teams this season. Knock on wood, but it seems like no matter who Lamar is matched with, he still manages to destroy opposing defenses. This week’s matchup is another highly favorable one for him as he faces the 26th ranked defenses against opposing quarterbacks. Lamar’s likely going to be involved in a reasonably high scoring game. The line indicates it’s going to be a shootout and his predicted outputs back that up. Jackson’s estimated passing output this week is 235 yards, 2.75 passing touchdowns, and 75 rushing yards. That’s the kind of floor I like to see. Jackson should be another slam dunk again this week.

Drew Brees (DK-$6,900)

Drew Brees fell flat on his face last week. Not only did he fail to break 12 points, he did so against the Falcons in a week he was the odds-on favorite to throw for the most yards and touchdowns in the league. It was truly a weird game and a disappointing result, but there’s hope for a quick rebound in the form of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Brees is facing one of the worst passing defenses in the league this week and he’s got a healthy Alvin Kamara available to give him more versatility too. Brees’ line this week is 2.75 touchdowns and 310 yards passing. The Bucs have the league’s top rush defense, so the air seems like the most logical way for the Saints to score in this game.

Dak Prescott (DK-$6,700)

Prescott will be facing the 29th ranked defense against quarterbacks this week in the Detroit Lions. He’s my tournament choice this week because he’s moderately priced but has been providing a high output now each week since the Saints game. Prescott still doesn’t have a line this week because the Lions haven’t completely ruled out Matt Stafford this week. Though he is a deeper play, he should be a fairly safe play this week, especially considering the price.

Running Backs

Tevin Coleman (DK-$6,100) or Raheem Mostert (DK-$3,400)

This pick is important because the injury news for both players should give us more insight on who to start. Mostert is currently the number two in the order, but he’s nursing a knee injury and is listed as questionable for Sunday’s contest. We have known both are capable of having big weeks, but Tevin Coleman’s potency as a pass-catcher makes him the higher upside play if both are good to go. We’ve also seen Coleman have a 43 point week this season. Coleman, as of now, is a mystery going into Sunday.

He left the team this week for personal reasons, so if he is able to return, he’s a steal at $6,100 and if Mostert is a no-go, Coleman is an absolute must-start. Conversely, if Coleman is inactive Sunday, Mostert is a must-start at just $3,400. Neither have a projected output this week due to the complications, but if one sits, start the other in all your lineups. If both are healthy, expect Coleman to get his largest volume of the year. I’ll be starting Coleman in both rosters if that’s the case.

Josh Jacobs (DK-$6,900)

Josh Jacobs is now the frontrunner for Rookie of the Year. He’s on pace to finish as a top 6 running back this season and now will get his shot at one of the league’s worst rush defenses (28th vs running backs). His line this week is 120 total yards. Though his floor is low because of the lack of receptions, he’s expected to get a couple this week and he served primarily as a pass catcher in college, so there’s always a possibility he could get more work as a receiving back. Start him with confidence this week against the Bengals, a defense that has surrendered 200 + rushing yards in four matchups this season.

Devin Singletary (DK-$6,000)

Singletary checks off the “Two Thumbs Up” criteria for DFS success this week as well. He has a plus matchup against the 31st ranked defense against opposing running backs and he’s got the high expected output total as well (105 total yards). Though it’s true he struggled last week against Cleveland, this matchup is loads better and he does have a decent ceiling due to his opportunities from pass-catching. Though he got just seven carries against the Dolphins the first time around (and no receptions), his role has expanded since then and he’s proven he can be an electric boost for this offense.

Wide Receivers

Michael Thomas (DK-$9,900)

Last week, Thomas was the top-priced option at receiver. He was projected 115 yards and got 152 yards on 13 receptions. That’s a 31 point total for him on the week and well worth the $8,300 we spent on him. This week should yield similar results. I realize he’s a risk and very expensive, but it’s not entirely insane when you consider the stack with Drew Brees. Sure, Brees was bad last week but it at least lowered Brees under 7k so $16,800 is worth is for the expected output of 55 points.

Value comes when the player triples their price. An acceptable output is 2.5 times the price, and anything under twice the price will likely doom you, assuming your entire team averages that output because a 50k budget produces 100 points in that scenario and as we know, 135 is usually the line to meet to cash, so the optimal goal for production via price is 2.7 times the cost of the player (cue “The more you know” jingle).

If we can get 2.7 times the expected production from Thomas (125 yards and 11 receptions) plus Brees (310 and 2.75 TDs), we would land somewhere around 55 points, which would be 3.27 times the cost. It’s a heavy investment but a safe one for these two this week. Last week’s investment for both was around 2.9 times the cost, so it really wasn’t a bad stack, despite the poor performance from Brees.

DeAndre Hopkins (DK-$8,100)

Hopkins doesn’t have a line this week, so this is more of a faith play here. He has a decent matchup, though Jimmy Smith and Humphrey have been solid and healthy lately. The absence of Will Fuller means Hopkins should once again feast. It’s likely going to be a shootout, so there’s a lot to be hopeful for with Hopkins and his expected output. If I had to guess, based on recent games from both the Baltimore secondary and Hopkins, I’d venture to say his expected receptions should be somewhere around 9 and his expected yardage somewhere around 94 yards. Regardless, he’s a high-volume hopeful this week.

DJ Moore (DK-$5,900)

DJ Moore may have the highest expected total I’ve seen for a receiver at this price. I leaned towards Zach Paschal for a moment, until I saw the line for Moore. Moore’s line is 85 yards this week. That’s especially insane given the price. I did some digging to find out more about this and all I could really come up with was that Atlanta’s secondary is really just that bad. Moore is priced at just $5,900 so an output of 85 yards on 6 receptions puts him at a nice 14.5 point projection for the week, and that doesn’t count the opportunity for a touchdown.

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews (DK-$6,100)

Mark Andrews hasn’t been a yardage monster this season, but he has been a preferred Red Zone target for Lamar Jackson. This week, Andrews is all a part of the option 1 lineup stack with Lamar Jackson. He’s not priced terribly well this week, but the Ravens will likely be without top receiver, Marquise Brown this week as he’s dealing with an injury. The game script for Andrews should be favorable to him this week, even though the expected output isn’t quite there. There aren’t a lot of good options on the main slate this week at tight end, so Andrews is a better value by comparison to his peers than anything else. You could roll the dice on a number of options at the position this week or you could just go with the proven guy in a good matchup.

Greg Olsen (DK-$3,900)

Olsen’s line this week is 55 yards. That’s tremendous when you consider the ceiling on Olsen. He’s got a good matchup this week, especially given his output a week ago (17.8 DK points). I like Olsen as a strong play, especially if you’ve spent up at other positions. Defenses like the Falcons have actually been decent against running backs this season, so there should be others on the Panthers to feast this week aside from McCaffrey.

Noah Fant (DK-$3,700)

Fant is a play here under the theory that young quarterbacks tend to lean heavily on their tight ends. It’s a good theory and the math tends to check out on it. Also, Fant hasn’t been getting targeted much, but when he has, he’s a big-play type of player. I think Fant has big Value upside this week, even if his line is around 47 receiving yards. He’s facing a defense who will likely stack the box against the Broncos and should result in Fant getting some looks outside.

Defense

Cowboys D (DK-$3,500)

The Cowboys will be facing young Jeff Driskell, who barely showed enough in college to get looks from NFL scouts. He’s a mobile quarterback who has struggled in the pocket throughout college and in limited time in the NFL. The Bengals released him last year and he caught on with the Lions and played okay last week at times. The Cowboys are coming off a tough loss against the Vikings and will no doubt be out for blood this week. Pick them up if you believe in the theory that is “Young QBs make mistakes”.

Raiders D (DK-$3,300)

The Raiders are 11.5 favorites, which I don’t believe has happened for them in the past few years. Using the same logic as the Cowboys pick, the Raiders will be playing a Bengals team who surrendered 24 points to the Ravens a week ago. The Raiders definitely aren’t the Ravens, but they are a solid NFL defense on occasion, and I have a good reason to believe they’re going to be one of those solid defenses on Sunday.

Jets D (DK-$3,100)

I’m not entirely sure why the Redskins are favorites against the Jets. It’s possible the reason is the Redskins have hung around in more games, but the Jets have a superior rush defense to the Redskins offensive line and the Redskins are starting a rookie quarterback who hasn’t looked good at all in 2019. This game has a low projected point total, so I think this is the safest among the defensive picks this week. Though, it’s probably not the one with the highest ceiling.

Flex

Brian Hill (DK-$4,800)

Brian Hill didn’t have a great performance last week. Despite that, he did manage to be effective in spurts against an elite rushing defense and found the end zone. This week, Hill will face a Carolina rush defense who has been shaky all year. He’s the only healthy back for the Falcons and should receive a high volume of touches.

Calvin Ridley (DK-$5,500)

Austin Hooper is done for the foreseeable future. Mohammed Sanu is gone. All the stars are aligning here for Ridley to re-capture his target share from 2018. With the Falcons rushing game being questionable, the likelihood Ridley gets 8+ targets is strong. His line this week is 6 receptions and 67 yards and we know Matt Ryan used to look for him in the Red Zone a lot in 2018, so there’s a reason to feel good about this week’s soft matchup and a lack of options in the Atlanta offense.

Deebo Samuel (DK-$4,000)

Deebo Samuel may be the default number one receiver this week if Emmanuel Sanders sits. He’s strong and explosive and has amazing speed to go with it. He also doesn’t drop balls at the rate of the other 49ers receivers, nor does he volley balls up into the air like Kendrick Bourne. Jimmy Garappolo torched the Cardinals with a career-high four touchdowns on Halloween and there’s no George Kittle to compete with on Sunday either. Like Ridley, Samuel will benefit from a plus matchup and a lack of other options.

Collin is a former Army Intelligence and Logistics officer who got a little too into Football analysis. Since leaving the Army, he’s practically the Jack Ryan of football analysts. But he spends most of his days with his wife and two daughters, so he is clearly a better father than Jack Ryan.

Follow Collin on Twitter @CollinHulbert