Daily Fantasy Sports Overlays – October 2015

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Overlay tracking site SuperLobby experienced technical issues during Sunday’s games so we are unable to report on where the daily fantasy football overlays were during Week 3. Check out the Week 2 NFL overlay report for information on where the overlays were the previous week. We’ll be back next week giving you the lowdown on Week 4.

With a brief break from our NFL report, we thought we would use this opportunity to take a look at overlays from other daily fantasy sports — yeah, there are other sports going on right now.

In a report released by SuperLobby from non-NFL daily fantasy games released on Saturday, we see that overlays are still prevalent at some of the less popular daily fantasy sports, while the big players are meeting most of their guarantees.

While FanDuel and DraftKings each accepted more in entry fees than they paid out in Saturday’s action, sites such as Draft Pot, Fantasy Feud and DraftorPass fell far short with effective rake on those contests as low was -79.59% (which was DraftorPass’s MLB contests).

What are Fantasy Football Overlays?

Before we get into the specifics of the report, allow us to briefly explain how an overlay works in the world of daily fantasy sports guaranteed tournaments. You can skip this section if you know the ins and outs of how overlays work.

Overlay can be defined as extra money contributed by a DFS site when a guaranteed prize pool of a DFS is not reached. While we can try to predict which tournaments are likely to yield an overlay, overlays themselves are not guaranteed but are reached when the from buy-in amount doesn’t cover the guarantee.

If you’re still confused, let’s break it down with an example. Let’s say that DraftKings is offering a $10,000 guaranteed prize pool for a $10 buy-in contest. If 9000 entries join that contest, that means only $90,000 has been contributed to the prize pool from the buy-in ($9000*10). Due to the fact that DraftKings has guaranteed that the prize pool will be at least $100,000, DraftKings must contribute the difference ($10,000) to pay all of the prizes.

The $10,000 in added value essentially means that the theoretical “average” lineups will perform better — all things being equal — in a tournament with an overlay versus a tournament that doesn’t reach an overlay. Part of the benefit is that less players are vying for the same prize pool, making it easier to place in the tournament. Breaking things down a bit more with the above example, you are getting $1.11 in value per lineup, or 11%, not an immaterial amount if you playing a decent amount of DFS this NFL season. In this example, 11% is enough to cover the buy-in fee and could easily be the difference to whether you are a winning or losing player over time.

Total Daily Fantasy GPP Overlays by Website — September 26th

The following is a summary of total overlay paid by the DFS websites on Saturday, September 26th, that Superlobby monitors.
SuperLobby gathers entry information for guaranteed tournaments from DraftKings, FanDuel, Fantasy Feud, Fantasy Aces, StarsDraft, Yahoo and DraftorPass.

DraftKings — Total net overlay for guaranteed prize pool tournaments was $0 for MLB and for college football.
FanDuel — $0 for MLB and for college football contests.
Yahoo — $2300 for MLB contests.
StarsDraft — $336 for MLB contests.
Fantasy Feud — $1159 for MLB contests and $3275 for college football contests.
DraftPot — $3058 for MLB contests and $1469 for college football contests
DraftorPass — $175 for MLB contets

Detailed Daily Fantasy Overlay Information by Website

SuperLobby has released overlay information for contests on Saturday. In this report, “effective rake” is the actual rake paid when playing a certain type of contest. If you enter a $10 contest that has a $1 buy-in fee included, you are paying 10% in rake. If that same contest has an overlay of $1, you are paying 0% in rake.

DraftKings

On Saturday, DraftKings posted profitable entry fee ratios (accepted more in buy-ins than its guaranteed prize pools) in its MLB, College football, MMA and Soccer contests, yielding effective rake of 8.48% in MLB contests and 11.17% in college football. DraftKings’s 215,000 college football entries over 1383 guaranteed prize pool tournaments took home $1.1 million in buy-ins.

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FanDuel

Like DraftKings, FanDuel collected more in buy-ins than guaranteed prize pools on Saturday’s sample. Players playing in all of FanDuel contests on Saturday would have paid effective rake of 8.48% for MLB and 11.43% for college football contests. FanDuel’s college football participation was around 90% of DraftKings, despite offering only 278 college football guaranteed tournaments.

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Yahoo

As with their NFL Week 2 performance, Saturday’s showing puts Yahoo as the clear #3 daily fantasy sports site for non-NFL action (behind FanDuel and DraftKings). Yahoo’s $44,500 in guarantee tournament prize pool total was not met but just barely, collecting $42,199 buy-ins for its $44,500 in guarantees at MLB contest. If you would have played all of Yahoo’s MLB guaranteed contests, you would have paid effective rake of -5.45%.

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StarsDraft

StarsDraft’s $336 in overlays yielded an effective rake of -7.54% in the website’s MLB contests. Only DraftKings and FanDuel paid out less in overlays.

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DraftPot

DraftPot’s -14.11% effective rake at MLB contests was behind only DraftOrPass and FantasyFeud for lowest rake, while rake was second lowest at -10.96% for college football contests. DraftPot paid the most overlays of any DFS site for its MLB contests. An indicator of its relative size, DraftPot came in 4th overall in total MLB buy-ins and 3rd among college football.

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Fantasy Feud

Fantasy Feud is where you wanted to be for overlays based on Saturday’s sample. The site collected $5653 in buy-ins while paying out $6815, which yielded -20.54% effective rake. Among the site’s college football contests, Fantasy Feud held the lowest effective rake with -28.92% on $14,597 in guaranteed prizes. Fantasy Feud paid the most overlays for college football and the third most overlays for MLB contests.

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DraftOrPass

DraftorPass was the overlay leader in terms of effective rake on Saturday, with -79.59% on its MLB contests over a small sample size ($221 in buy-ins. $396.90 in prize paid out).

Final Thoughts

Going by the September 26th sample, the smaller DFS sites are where you need to be looking if you want to go where the overlays are. Fantasy Feud and DraftPot appear to be good places to start when balancing traffic at the site and total overlays. If the overlays continue at these sites, you can find action that will pay for your buy-in fees and then some.

DraftKings and FanDuel seem to be placing their guarantees at levels which are about equal to player interests, while you’ll get larger prize pools that wont necessarily yield an overlay. If you are looking for overlays at a large site, the Yahoo MLB contests and Fantasy Feud college football contests appear to be the most compelling.

About SuperLobby

For real time information about guaranteed tournament contests make sure to monitor the incredibly helpful SuperLobby. It’s a free service that is laid out very well, allowing you to filter through the highest value major contests across many sites. The information is provided in real-time.

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